“Will Panama Go The Way Of Mexico?”

(Photo Credit: Joel Carillet)

This is a reprint of a great article written by Don Winner at the Panama Guide who has “25 year lenses” here in Panama having arrived when Noriega was in power in 1987.  He gives an excellent perspective on the situation yesterday, today and where we are heading.

By DON WINNER for – Received this afternoon via email: “Hello, As many people have probably inquired, I too have been thinking of moving/renting/buying property on panama, specifically, the Boquete/Dolego/ Boca Chica area. I have been to Boca Chica area by boat from Costa Rica to the canal. Like all latin countries, safety is my primary concern. Of course, Panama is the main route for drug and weapons traffic. and the many articles I’ve read on the subject have said how much the traffic and violence has increased. I for one say there is no stopping it. The main reason I don’t go to Mexico anymore. I recently got back from San Carlos Panama and it was just ok. I think David is a small Panama City, where you can still get goods and services. I speak very little Spanish, although I continue to take lessons, but difficult for me. They say it’s the one of the safest Latin American countries, but will that continue? I found the Panamanians good decent people, hardworking, and pretty helpful, just like the Mexicans, but Mexico is being overrun by the cartels and the government, although trying, is outmanned, outgunned, and out financed, thereby contributing to the eventual downfall of the country. I guess my question is: will Panama be another Mexico in the near future and would it be wise to make any kind of investment/move there? My thought is to move to Florida {I’m from NH}, and perhaps just do 6 mos. there and 6 mos. in David area. any info or your own thoughts would be helpful. Thank You. MC.”

Editor’s Comment: Excellent question. The short answer is – no – Panama will probably not go the way of Mexico, with regards to internal security. Panama has always been a transit country for drug traffickers. The cocaine is grown and processed in South America then moved past, through, or around Panama on the way to markets in the United States and Canada. Here in Panama the drugs go North and the money comes South. So, there are problems associated with the drug traffickers and money launderers, as well as all of the associated peripheral activities such as trafficking in weapons and human beings. Back in the 1980’s when cocaine first became big the drug cartels were all Colombian – guys like Pablo Escobar. Once they were taken down and broken up, the Colombian guerrillas (FARC) woke up one day and realized they were in charge of the whole thing. Their power peaked in the mid 90’s when they were receiving more than $2 billion dollars per year from the drug trade. In response the United States started to spend some real serious money to help the Colombian government defeat the narco-guerrillas. That was so successful that today the FARC is talking about disarming and disbanding. Once the FARC started to get their butts kicked, the ball was passed to the Mexican drug cartels. They turned out to be much more blood thirsty and violent than the Colombians every were. And that’s pretty much where we are today – with the Mexicans being responsible for most of the trafficking of cocaine. So, what does all of this mean for Panama?

A Safe Haven: Just two days ago I published this article – Mexican and Colombian Drug Cartel Capos – Hiding in Panama. It seems that Panama is a relatively nice place to use as a base of operations if you’re a drug trafficking kingpin, and the last thing you want to do when you’re hiding is make a lot of noise. In the last three years the Panamanian authorities have busted about 130 tons of cocaine – which the drug traffickers just see as the cost of doing business. The lower level guys will very often get into violent clashes among themselves. Sometimes one group of bad guys will learn that another group of bad guys is moving a load of cocaine so they will try to steal it from them, and there’s a gunfight, and then the authorities find the bodies a few days later. Or, if there’s a drug bust, then a few days later the bodies start turning up as the bosses punish those who screwed up. Or, low level local youth gangs will kill one another in turf battles for rights to control the drug trafficking in the different parts of the neighborhood. None of this violent activity ever splashes on to the community of English speaking expatriates in the Republic of Panama. The greatest danger to expats? The possibility of getting mugged on the street by some crack head who is desperate for a few dollars to score his next fix. And even that is extremely, exceptionally rare.

Panama Is Like A Straw: Panama is very narrow, and it’s relatively easy for the authorities to shut down any one part of the country if necessary for security reasons. Like, let’s say the Darien region, for example. If all of a sudden a large number of heavily armed narco-traffickers started raising hell in the Darien, the authorities could control all access into and out of that entire province by putting checkpoints on one road. They are already patrolling both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, looking for drug traffickers. There are only two bridges that connect Panama City to the interior of the country. Panama is investing heavily to buy arms and equipment to be in a better position to enforce the law and interdict drug traffickers, so their capabilities are improving. The National Police, the SENAFRONT, and the SENAN are all training more people and improving their overall capabilities. So if anything the security situation in Panama for the members of the expatriate community is improving, from a strategic point of view. All of these factors combine to make Panama a much, much safer place than Mexico. And, I don’t see anything on the horizon in either the near or long term that might change the fundamental security situation to the negative. On the contrary, in the long term the trend is for Panama to become even more safe and secure than it is today.

My Point Of View: When I first arrived in Panama back in 1987 Manuel Noriega was in charge of the country as a military dictator. He was trafficking cocaine through Cuba, and the security situation go so bad that the United States was forced to invade (Just Cause) in order to secure the Panama Canal and the US citizens living here. Since Noriega was taken down and democracy restored, there have been five democratically elected presidents. During that entire time the security situation has improved substantially. There was a sharp increase in murders related to drug trafficking during the Martin Torrijos administration, precisely because the Colombians passed the ball to the Mexicans back in about 2006 or 2007. So now five years later, the government has spent the money necessary to combat the threat. They have not won the war, but they are heartily engaged. So, through my 25 year lenses, the situation has gone from really bad to a whole lot better, and chances are that trend will continue.