Dr. David Katz | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

The first part of this post is a video interview that I found very interesting and the second part, a perspective from my friend John Wolff.

First, click on the above picture to hear Dr. David Katz.  Preventive medicine and public health specialist Dr. David Katz joins Bill to discuss whether the fight against coronavirus is worse than the disease.

Second, here is John’s perspective on Panama and what needs to be done right now. From John …”

I am not any kind of a specialist and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But, here is my two cents worth.

• From what I understand, there are two possible ways to end the pandemic. A vaccine, which is by all accounts still 18 months away, or herd immunity.
• The only way to achieve heard immunity is for 80% of the population to have been exposed to the virus and for that 80% to have developed anti-bodies to the virus.
• Given the above, the purpose of the quarantine was to give the health care system a chance to prepare for the high demands of the multitudes of patients expected. This was called “flattening the curve”.
• By flattening the curve, we have expended the time it takes to achieve herd immunity.
• Some data – As of today, 4/26/2020,
  • The health care system has had 45 days to prepare and has done so.
  • There have been 25,400 tests performed with 5,538 testing positive or about 22% of those tested being positive.
  • Of the 22% testing positive, only 260 need hospitalization. That is 4.69% of those testing positive.
  • At this time, only 85 people require ICU..
  • There has been a total of 159 deaths or 2.87% of those testing positive.
• In other words, based on the tests we have done in Panama, your chances of surviving are 97.2% of those testing positive and we do not really know how many are positive.
• Further, 77% of the fatalities are people over 60 with underlying conditions.
• These are conservative numbers because we have not done enough testing. We do not really know how many are positive and asymptomatic. So, your chances of surviving are greater than 97.2%.
• It is estimated that 80% of those exposed to the virus never show symptoms.

Fixation – In aviation we have a thing call “pilot fixation”. When a pilot fixates on a problem it keeps the pilot from performing his primary task of flying the aircraft. Pilot’s have a golden rule “aviate, navigate, communicate.”. Right now, the whole world is fixated on the virus. No one is flying the plane.  The economy is crashing. People are hungry.  People with other medical conditions are not getting treatment.

On that note, since I am an old fart in the high-risk group, I have the right to make the following observation. No, I do not want to die. I am thoroughly enjoying my life. My life is fulfilling, challenging, exciting, and greatly rewarding. I do not want anyone to die.  I do not want my 92-year-old father to die. I do not want Aurora or my sisters to die.  I do not want any of my many friends to suffer a death either. But life is not without risk. I think better than 97.2% odds in my favor are extremely good.

Cruel punishment. I know some folks who are sitting in their comfortable home with two retirement checks, a boat load of investments, and a great grocery store a block and a half away. They are perfectly willing to continue the quarantine until the virus dies.

Consider the many families in Panama that exist day-to-day. There are 6 or 8 people living in a two room, 30 square meter house with no income and no food for the last 45 days because there is a less than 2.87% chance of someone dying.  This is beyond cruel.

Consider the economic impact.  I worked very hard to provide a future for my children and they worked hard to provide a future for my grandchildren.  I am not willing to sacrifice their futures because I have a less than 2.87% chance of dying.

What happened to our rights? Are you willing to give up all your rights because you have a 2.87% chance of dying??? Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. You give power to someone you won’t get it back. Especially in Latin-America which has a long history of dictatorships.

So, what do we do?  I say identify those most at risk and give them an opportunity to self-isolate. Open most business with reduced crowds, face masks, sanitary procedures, and social distancing. Discourage travel and (important for me) allow people to repatriate. (Yes, I want Aurora to come home). Most importantly we need more testing. We need to develop better treatment methods.  We do not seem to be doing that very well. ”

Thank you John for your permission to publish your perspective and I wish you and Aurora the best and hope for her speedy return to Boquete.