The Panama Canal’s expanded locks, which provide container lines with a new route for ships carrying up to 13,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units, also have opened a new path for roll-on, roll-off carriers that measure capacity not in TEUs but in CEUs, or car equivalent units.
Vehicle carriers factored the canal expansion into their orders for their latest generation of roll-on, roll-off car and truck carriers. More than two dozen pure car and truck carriers now have beams exceeding the 106-foot (32-meter) maximum of the canal’s older locks.
Broader beams improve the ships’ stability and increase cargo capacity by reducing the need for ballast. The neo-Panamax ships’ larger capacity — up to 8,800 CEUs, compared with about 6,500 for a regular Panamax — provides carriers with economies of scale.
“We can run more cube at less expense, and carry more cars at less expense,” said Trond Sjursen, chief operating officer at Hoegh Autoliners, which has ordered six neo-Panamax ships. Four are already in use, and the other two will be delivered by year-end.
Hoegh probably would have ordered the new ships even without the canal expansion, Sjursen said, but the expanded canal provides operators with increased flexibility, an important advantage in the fast-changing world of vehicle logistics. “For us, the expanded canal has been a welcome addition,” he said. “It has given us added flexibility to trade these vessels more or less worldwide.”
Wider beams for neo-Panamax car carriers are important because carriers effectively had maxed out on their ability to lengthen ships. Berth restrictions at automobile ports in Japan and other countries made it impractical to introduce longer ships.
Auto carriers carry heavy-lift, project, and breakbulk cargoes as well as vehicles. Carriers’ route networks are based primarily on origins and destinations of new vehicles, but the larger ships also provide additional capacity to carry high and heavy cargoes.
Years ago, vehicle carriers’ services were concentrated on routes linking Japan with Europe and the US as automakers have expanded production globally, carriers’ route maps have become more complex and fluid.
North America has been a bright spot lately for auto carriers. Europe is starting to recover from a long recession. The Middle East has been hurt by the drop in oil and gas prices, which has reduced demand for cars and affected ro-ro shipments for construction projects.
Carriers serve an automotive industry that arranges its supply chain based on production costs and consumer demand that waxes and wanes with economic conditions, currency valuations, and other factors, including trade agreements. Ships built to operate for 20 to 25 years may be shuttled among several routes during their lifetimes.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics has taken delivery of four of eight High-Efficiency Ro-Ro (HERO) vessels scheduled to be delivered by next year. The ships are just under 200 meters long, have 36.5-meter beams, and have shallow drafts that allow them to serve a wider range of ports.
Ari Marjamaa, vice president and head of global intelligence at Wallenius Wilhelmsen, said the carrier seeks to match its fleet to changing markets and supply chains, and that the expanded canal will provide the carrier with additional options. “We would not have ordered the neo-Panamax ships without the canal expansion,” he said.
Neo-Panamax vehicle carriers dominate the current round of orders for new vehicle carriers. They represent only a small percentage of vessels transiting the canal’s new locks, however. Of the 69 vessels that transited the locks during the first month after their June 26 opening, only three were vehicle carriers.
“As the cost of transiting the Panama Canal has not become more attractive following the expansion, I expect there will be very limited changes to the routing pattern for ro-ro/vehicle carriers,” Marjamaa said.
US vehicle imports and exports have been on a roll since the recession. Mike Wall, director of automotive analysis at IHS, parent company of JOC, said US light vehicle imports this year are expected to rise 4.1 percent from last year’s level of just short of 3.7 million units.
The post-recession sales recovery is “entering the very late innings,” he said, and demand is expected to level off during the next few years and could begin to slip in 2018 or 2019 as interest rates rise, legislated content raises vehicle prices, and increased urbanization slows sales demand.
US vehicle imports also could face longer-term headwinds from increased US domestic production, Wall said.
On the flip side, vehicle carriers and ports report increased US exports of finished vehicles. The Port of Charleston, for example, handles about 250,000 vehicles a year of exports from BMW’s plant at Spartanville, South Carolina.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen said industry imports to North America, including Mexico and Canada, totaled 4.6 million units last year, or 22 percent of sales. The carrier expects that total to rise to 4.9 million units, or 24 percent of sales, by 2020, as volume sourced from Asia remains fairly flat while shipments from Europe rise.
Light-vehicle exports from North America are expected to rise to 1.8 million units in 2020 from 1.5 million units in 2015, Wallenius Wilhelmsen said. The largest increase in consumption is expected to be in Europe. Though the US remains the largest North American auto producer, Mexico is the growth leader in production for export.
Automakers have been aggressively building and expanding plants in Mexico, where vehicle production is expected to rise by more than 10 percent per year during the next few years.
A growing percentage of Mexico-to-US vehicle production is being shipped by sea from Veracruz and other Mexican ports to the US East and Gulf coasts. Alhough rail shipment still dominates, more shipments are being routed by sea to avoid border delays and theft and damage on overland shipments.
Vehicle carriers are working this development into their routes. Hoegh vessels sailing from Asia through the Panama Canal often pick up US-bound vehicles in Veracruz while en route to the US East of Gulf coasts, but Sjursen said there’s not enough Mexico-to-US volume for a dedicated service.
The new generation of ro-ro vessels is designed to carry oversize, project, and breakbulk cargoes as well as vehicles. Modern ships are built with high-capacity, adjustable decks and larger ramps to accommodate high and heavy cargoes.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen said demand for high and heavy cargo to the United States was relatively strong for a couple of years before softening this year as the North American construction market cooled. The company, however, said it remains “fairly optimistic” about US demand for high and heavy cargo.
Export demand has slumped with the plunge in commodity prices, which has reduced demand for earth-moving machinery and other large pieces in regions such as the Middle East.
Ro-ro carriers have had some success in equipment used for wind power generation, a market that is thriving in several regions, including the United States, which in December extended renewable-energy tax credits for five years. A growing percentage of that business, however, is sourced locally, reducing the need for ocean transport.
Vehicle carriers’ project and breakbulk cargoes include a variety of markets that follow different cycles. The overall breakbulk market is probably even slower than the market for high-and-heavy shipments, Sjursen said, but Hoegh has increased its market share. “We’ve had to diversify our cargo mix in order to make money,” he said. “The markets are shrinking, but we are increasing our carrying, so we’re looking forward to when the market turns around.”
Shipments of high and heavy cargoes and vehicles tend to be based on price bids and are “more commoditized” than breakbulk and project shipments, which rely heavily on relationships with forwarders and manufacturers, Sjursen said.
“With the project cargo and breakbulk, the service level and know-how is as important as rates,” he said. “It doesn’t help to have a cheap rate if you don’t have the equipment and can’t load the cargo. Of course, you have to be competitive, but I think the ratio between price, service, quality, and competence is equal, whereas in the tenders for high and heavy cargo and vehicles, it’s probably price that is 90 percent and all of the other factors that are 10 percent.”