Imperial College London says so. On April 3 there was an average transmission number of 1.8, and yesterday it dropped to 1.4; the ideal number is 1 or less than 1.
A report on the Imperial College London estimates shows that Panama is among the 14 countries that can stabilize in the next days or weeks -depending on compliance with quarantine measures- the average number of new Covid-19 infections that occur from of a case, that is, the Rt.
The document took into account the available data on the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 in 42 countries of the world with active transmission.
From this report it appears that Panama this week could reach between 1 or less than 1 in the average transmission number (Rt), along with 13 other countries.
The Ministry of Health reported on Monday the 13th that the Rt was at 1.5 and they hoped that a more stable pattern would be achieved in the next few days. Yesterday he said it had dropped to 1.4.
Imperial College London also estimates that the number of deaths reported this week is relatively small across the 14 countries.
Jean Paul Carrera, epidemiologist and virologist at the Gorgas Commemorative Institute for Health Studies, clarified that the predictions of the Rt and number of deaths may change as the population complies with quarantine or not.
The countries that appear in these studies is because their authorities have published the number of cases and deaths that have occurred.
Rt, a key measure to assess the course of the epidemic
One of the measures that has become relevant to know the course of the virus in the country is the Rt, the effective reproductive number, which allows establishing the magnitude of the epidemic and its transmission among the population. This number is also used to estimate what might be the best control strategies and assess whether they can have an effect on the epidemic.
On three occasions, the authorities of the Ministry of Health (Minsa) have shown us the Rt that the virus has in the country. The first was on April 3, when the measurement marked 1.8, that is, that an infected person transmitted the virus to 1.8 more people. The second time they revealed the data was on April 13, when the Rt presented was 1.5, and the third time, yesterday, they reported an Rt of 1.4.
The difference in those 11 days (4 decimal places) is not considerable, but it is important to decrease the number of cases. The ultimate goal is for that number to hit 1 or less than 1.
This was explained by Jean Paul Carrera, an epidemiologist and virologist at the Gorgas Commemorative Institute for Health Studies (Icges), who specified that there are many methods to obtain the Rt, and that the epidemic curve method is currently used, which is nothing more than the graph of the number of positive cases reported per day by the Minsa.
Then these values ??are used in mathematical equations to calculate the Rt.
The scientist stated that they use Rt when there is already transmission of the virus in the community, and clarified that the decrease in the measurement (to 1.5) that was reported last Monday does not mean that there will immediately be a drop in the number of cases or cases deaths, since the effect of the decrease in Rt could be observed in the next 15 days.
The decrease in Rt is attributed to quarantine and social distancing. However, Gorgas plans to start a study next month that will establish, categorically, to what extent the measures adopted reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Carrera reported.
An encouraging report
While new cases and deaths from Covid-19 disease continue to be recorded, authorities take action and scientists study the actual behavior of the epidemic in the country, projections for this week from Imperial College London were released yesterday, providing a hope in the midst of the health crisis.
The document proposes a stabilization of the Rt –between 1 and less than 1– in 14 countries, among which is Panama. The rest are Argentina, Austria, the Dominican Republic, Greece, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway and South Korea.
The weekly report also indicates that 26 other countries have an Rt greater than 2, such as Algeria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
In this sense, the scientist explained that this situation is due to several aspects, among them, that not all countries carry out massive tests on the population, that quarantine or social distancing measures were adopted very late, and that the presence of the virus was not It was detected in time, which delayed the implementation of the recommended measures in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Furthermore, the report estimates that the total number of deaths reported for the week will be relatively small, less than 100, in 14 countries including Panama.
For Carrera, the data provided by the report from Imperial College London is very encouraging, and is the result of the sacrifice of the general population. However, he said, the measures must continue.
The number of deaths and projected Rt may change as the population complies with quarantine or not.
“I do not doubt that the decision to return to normality will be based on the analysis of the Rt and other parameters of the epidemics,” he said.
The scientist noted that the countries that appear in these studies are because the health authorities make publicly available the number of cases and deaths that have occurred. The more access to information, the better the estimate of Rt and deaths.
Two indicators
In Panama, the Minsa has two indicators, in constant analysis: one is the Rt, and the other is to know how often the cases double.
Rodrigo Deantonio, an epidemiologist who makes the projections for the Health authorities, maintained that the Rt is decreasing, but it is still missing to reach the goal. “We are close,” he said.
He indicated that they hope that this week the Rt will achieve a more stable pattern of transmission, especially since these days are the most critical of the epidemic.
With regard to the duplication of cases, Deantonio specified that for April 3 it occurred every 3 days; for April 12 it happened every 8 days, and yesterday, every 8.5 days. Ideally, it should be every 10 days or more, in order to avoid the collapse of the health system.
The health authorities projected three scenarios for last April 10. One of them – the most optimistic and that was not reached – predicted 2,000 cases or less; the actual number was close to 3,000. However, Deantonio said, the country managed to contain the number of infections, since in the worst case scenario today there would be more than 9 thousand cases.
On the subject, the Minister of Health, Rosario Turner indicated that it is important to continue with the quarantine measures and the behavior analysis of the virus.
“All the decisions that are being made in the face of this pandemic have a scientific basis,” he said.