When the expanded Panama Canal is operational, produce shippers who have traditionally relied on West Coast ports and rail service could benefit from a more segmented approach, according to a study by C.H. Robinson.
The study, a joint project by C.H. Robinson and the Boston Consulting Group, shows up to 10% of container traffic from East Asia to the U.S. could likely shift from West Coast ports to East Coast ports by 2020.
The study predicts changes in availability and scheduling of ground transportation that will likely affect how fresh produce is transported inland from ports on both coasts. Shippers of consumer goods such as couches and tires could save 4% or more by sending freight through the Panama Canal to access ports in New England, according to the study.
Fresh produce shippers likely won’t make that switch because of the additional time it requires. The study says it will probably take about 11 days longer for freight to reach East Coast ports via the canal than it does for it to reach West Coast ports.
“(For some) products, the savings of shipping through the Panama Canal will likely outweigh the extra time in transit,” C.H. Robinson’s director of ocean services Sri Laxmana said in a news release.
That change would effectively move what the study refers to as a battleground region in the center of the U.S. further East, changing demand for trucks and rail transportation.
“If cost were all that mattered, shippers would route through an expanded Panama Canal to reach Columbus, (Ohio) via rail from the New York–New Jersey port,” according to the study.
“When you do the math, the savings gained by transporting tires and couches to the battleground region through the Panama Canal are large enough to more than make up for the extra inventory that shippers will need to carry.”
The shift of containers to the East Coast won’t mean less freight coming through West Coast ports, though, because overall volumes are increasing, according to the study.
“Even so, this shift of up to 10% will fundamentally alter supply chains,” according to the study. “Notably, the battleground on which U.S. ports compete with one another for customers will likely expand and move several hundred miles west, toward Chicago and Memphis.
“It will take in other metropolitan areas, such as Detroit and Columbus, Ohio, and encompass a newly contested region that accounts for more than 15% of U.S. gross domestic product. In this area, shippers will often be able to route containers through East Coast ports to inland destinations at costs that are either lower or comparable to the costs that they would incur by using West Coast ports.”
The study predicts ports in New York, New Jersey, Norfolk, Va., Savannah, Ga., and Charleston, S.C., will all gain market share because of their close proximity to the battleground region and rail routes to major markets.
Ports in Houston and New Orleans are also expected to see increasing use when the expanded canal opens, according to the study, because freight can be quickly distributed to the Gulf Coast region from those locations.
“The remaining major East Coast ports, notably Baltimore and Miami, will likely experience traffic levels similar to those that would occur without the expansion. In most cases, these ports serve regional markets and will be unlikely to receive large volumes of cargo headed to the battleground region,” according to the study.
“We expect the Baltimore and Norfolk ports to compete actively for mid-Atlantic regional traffic. Miami serves a region that is otherwise costly to reach from other ports. All three ports may need to broaden their appeal to a wider set of shippers, outside the region, for their investments to pay off.”