According to the IMF, the local gross domestic product would fall 2% this year, which would mean a fall of 5 percentage points compared to the 3% growth registered last year.

The spread of the new coronavirus and the measures that governments have implemented to contain it and protect the health of the population will cause the greatest economic recession since the Great Depression of 1929, leaving even small the international financial crisis that hit the planet since 2008.

This is estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which yesterday presented its report on the Outlook for the World Economy, projections marked by the paralysis of economic activity to fight the virus.

“As countries have implemented the necessary quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the world has entered a great confinement. The magnitude and speed of the stoppage of activity has been something we have never experienced in our lives, “says the agency.

For the international entity, we are facing “an unprecedented crisis”, surrounded by uncertainty about the impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.

According to IMF estimates, the world economy will suffer a contraction of 3% in 2020. This means a drop of almost six percentage points compared to the 2.9% growth registered in 2019.

No group of countries will be saved from the impact of the crisis. The advanced economies will decrease by 6.1% while the emerging economies will register a 1% fall in their gross domestic product (GDP).

Latin America and the Caribbean will fall 5.2%, dragged down by the sharp falls expected for large economies in the region, such as Brazil (-5.3%) and Mexico (-6.6%).

Panama will suffer a contraction of 2% this year to rebound in 2021 to 4%. In the two years, the country ranks among the countries with the best performance in the region.

The IMF projection is similar to that presented last weekend by the World Bank and that of some local analysts. However, any estimate should be considered preliminary because everything will depend on how long the confinement lasts.

The World Bank noted that despite the solid foundations of the Panamanian economy, a contraction is expected due to the impact of Covid-19. “Panama has important links with the world economy and the main job-generating sectors, such as services and construction, are affected,” said the agency.

Along the same lines, the economist Horacio Estribí said yesterday in a webinar organized by the Panamanian-Venezuelan Chamber of Entrepreneurs, that the country will not suffer from the fall in primary exports, as is expected to happen in other nations in the region, but you will feel the impact in sectors such as tourism, logistics, construction and banking. The also advisor to the Ministry of Economy and Finance said that of the seven activities that contribute most to the national GDP, six are sensitive to this crisis.

Similarly, activities that generate large amounts of employment are being affected, so a rise in the unemployment rate is expected, which according to the IMF will reach 8.8% this year, from 7.1% in 2019 and 6% from 2018

Source: La Prensa