The 200 countries gathered at COP28, held in Dubai, agreed to abandon the use of oil, gas and coal by 2050. This consensus represents a challenge and an opportunity for the necessary energy transition in order to mitigate global warming and diversify towards cleaner energy sources.
According to the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, the analysis of the Global Energy Perspective 2023 highlights that addressing the technological challenges in the energy transition through innovation, infrastructure development and regulation will be crucial to achieve the net-zero emissions targets, aligned with the Paris Agreement.
The report reveals that, in the case of fossil fuels, total growth has begun to slow down, anticipating a decrease in demand in the next 2 to 7 years. It is projected that, if the commitments made are met, the demand for oil will be reduced by almost half by 2050, driven by the slowdown in the growth of car fleets, greater efficiency in engines and electrification of transport.
The increase in renewable energies could reduce emissions by 71% by 2050 compared to current levels, despite the increase in demand. The findings indicate that overcoming the obstacles related to the availability of land, infrastructure, manufacturing and others will be crucial, since the transition must occur at a rate five times greater than the current one.
The fastest-growing technologies, such as wind, solar, electric vehicles, green hydrogen and heat pumps, could represent up to 85% of the world’s electricity generation by 2050. However, it is pointed out that these technologies are vulnerable to bottlenecks, especially in the supply of materials, highlighting the need for global collaboration.
Global energy consumption could decrease by up to 6% by 2050 in a scenario of commitments reached, driven by the electrification of sectors. The demand for hydrogen is expected to increase two to five times by 2050, with significant growth in new industries.
McKinsey highlights the crucial role of Latin America in the transition, with significant renewable potential and the ability to export renewable electricity. In addition, it is estimated that annual investments in the energy sector could grow between 2% and 4% annually, reaching between US$2 and US$3.2 billion in 2040, with a prominent focus on decarbonization technologies.