{"id":9839,"date":"2014-03-11T14:17:14","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T19:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=9839"},"modified":"2014-03-11T14:17:14","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T19:17:14","slug":"fitch-affirms-panamas-rating-at-bbb-outlook-remains-stable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/fitch-affirms-panamas-rating-at-bbb-outlook-remains-stable\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Affirms Panama&#8217;s Rating at &#8216;BBB&#8217;; Outlook Remains Stable"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/fitch-ratings.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-9840\" title=\"fitch-ratings\" src=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/fitch-ratings.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/fitch-ratings.jpg 600w, https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/fitch-ratings-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This report in from Reuters about the continued stability of Panama.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"articleText\"><span class=\"focusParagraph\">NEW YORK, March 07 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Panama&#8217;s ratings as  follows:  &#8211;Long-term foreign currency IDRs at &#8216;BBB&#8217;; Outlook Stable; &#8211;Long-term local currency IDRs at &#8216;BBB&#8217;; Outlook Stable; &#8211;Country Ceiling at &#8216;A&#8217;; &#8211;Short-term foreign currency IDR at &#8216;F3&#8217;.  KEY RATING DRIVERS  The affirmation reflects the following factors: Panama&#8217;s high growth rates since 2004 are a result of policy continuity centered  on the expansion of the Panama Canal and the positioning of the country as a  regional logistics hub. This strategy has driven a public and private  investment-led growth cycle that has protected the <span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\"><span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\">economy<\/span><\/span> from external shocks  over the last eight years when Panama&#8217;s five year average growth has  consistently outperformed that of peers. Higher inflation and deterioration in  current account deficits reflected some macroeconomic tensions that have built  up over the last few years during the period of rapid growth. However, the  flexibility of Panama&#8217;s economy &#8211; and its ability to adjust to shocks &#8211; has  helped to mitigate the imbalances and prevented them from becoming problematic.  Indeed, some of the macroeconomic imbalances now appear to be diminishing. If Panama&#8217;s economic model is well administered, the country could enjoy  sustainable growth over the medium term. Fitch expects growth to converge to a  more sustainable rate of 6% by 2015 as investment projects come to fruition.  Government estimates indicate that the economy expanded at a real rate of 8.5%  in 2013. Despite strong growth, Panama&#8217;s fiscal consolidation has been relatively slow,  partly reflecting the government&#8217;s commitment to complete its ambitious  investment plan. Consequently, public debt reduction has been driven more by the  country&#8217;s fast growth rate rather than by a focus on fiscal consolidation. Debt  to GDP fell to 38.4% in 2013 from 39.2% in 2012, representing the slowest pace  of reduction since 2006 (except in the 2009 global financial crisis).  Nevertheless, Fitch&#8217;s debt dynamics analysis suggests that debt will continue to  fall over the coming two years provided the government keeps its deficit in line  with the ceilings incorporated in the Fiscal Responsibility Law. Future consolidation challenges include a slowing economy as well as continued  social spending pressures. In addition, the need to address the social security  actuarial imbalance, public education, <span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\"><span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\">natural disasters<\/span><\/span> and security concerns  will burden fiscal accounts in the medium term. Although some unwinding of  public investment to more sustainable levels from the current 10% of GDP should  provide space for future fiscal consolidation, turnkey projects could be a  source of future fiscal rigidity. Further potential delays on the <span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\"><span class=\"mandelbrot_refrag\">construction<\/span><\/span> works to expand the Panama Canal could make fiscal consolidation harder for any  future administration as the fiscal windfall coming from the enlarged canal  takes longer to materialize.  The Panama Canal expansion is already one year behind schedule due to delays on  the construction of the third set of locks, the main project of the expanded  canal. On Feb. 27, the Panama Canal Authority (Spanish acronym ACP), the  autonomous agency in charge of managing the canal operations, reached an  agreement with the locks&#8217; construction consortium to resume work after two weeks  of stoppage. Fitch&#8217;s base case assumes that the canal expansion will be  completed by December 2015 and start operating in 2016 (as per ACP&#8217;s February  2014 updated estimate) with some margin of cost overruns. While the assumed  completion date could suffer further delays, it is unlikely to undermine the  canal&#8217;s value proposition in the medium term. However, Fitch believes that the  ACP has the financial and technical flexibility to support any possible cost  overruns or the change of the construction consortium.  Presidential and legislative elections will take place in Panama on May 4. The  electoral contest is unlikely to introduce major risks to the economy as the  overall growth strategy to leverage the canal and convert the country into a  regional logistics hub and attract tourism is not under threat. Overall policy  continuity is likely under any of the three leading presidential candidates.  Tight poll numbers imply that all leading candidates remain in contention to  become president. In fact, it has been difficult for opposition candidates to  differentiate themselves from the incumbent given the unprecedented economic  growth. RATING SENSITIVITIES  The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch&#8217;s assessment that upside and downside risks to  the rating are currently well balanced. Consequently, Fitch&#8217;s sensitivity  analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of  leading to a rating change. The main factors that, individually or collectively, could lead to positive  rating action are: &#8211;A sustained reduction in government indebtedness. Adherence to fiscal targets  will also be positive for fiscal credibility. &#8211;Maintenance of a sustainable growth trajectory. The main factors that, individually or collectively, could lead to negative  rating action are: &#8211;A sustained fiscal deterioration that leads to a persistent weakening of the  government debt dynamics;  &#8211;A long suspension of the Canal project with adverse material implications for  growth and fiscal accounts. A significant reduction in Canal transfers to the  Treasury that materially reduces fiscal flexibility. &#8211;A destabilizing bout of political uncertainty. KEY ASSUMPTIONS  The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions:  &#8211;Fitch&#8217;s base case assumes that general elections will be held without  disruptions to governance and power will be transferred smoothly; &#8211;Fitch base case assumes that the canal expansion will be completed by December  2015 (as per ACP&#8217;s updated estimate) with some margin of cost overruns.  &#8211;Fitch assumes that the impact on the economy and financial system of the Colon  Free Zone (CFZ) unresolved suppliers&#8217; arrears from Venezuelan will be  manageable; &#8211;Fitch base case assumes that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy will be  gradual.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This report in from Reuters about the continued stability of Panama. NEW YORK, March 07 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fitch Affirms Panama&#039;s Rating at &#039;BBB&#039;; Outlook Remains Stable - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/fitch-affirms-panamas-rating-at-bbb-outlook-remains-stable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch Affirms Panama&#039;s Rating at &#039;BBB&#039;; Outlook Remains Stable\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This report in from Reuters about the continued stability of Panama. 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