{"id":9033,"date":"2013-11-11T11:43:26","date_gmt":"2013-11-11T16:43:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=9033"},"modified":"2013-11-11T12:30:57","modified_gmt":"2013-11-11T17:30:57","slug":"nicaraguas-president-looks-to-end-term-limits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/nicaraguas-president-looks-to-end-term-limits\/","title":{"rendered":"Nicaragua’s President Looks to End Term Limits"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What do they say about great minds?\u00a0 Seem that they do think alike. Here in a Statfor article, they examine the impact of the leader’s decision to remain in control.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Leftist Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega appears set to rule for at least another term. A continuation of his presidency would further strengthen the control of the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front, which proposed constitutional reforms Nov. 4 that could allow Ortega to be re-elected an unlimited number of times and to rule by decree, among other <\/span>changes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reform initiative is likely planned to secure the ruling party’s stay in power for the foreseeable future and give Ortega time to name a political successor. The current government has the benefit of strong public support, a growing economy and few credible political opponents. As a result, Ortega’s reforms will probably be approved by the National Assembly in early 2014.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The planned\u00a0changes\u00a0would\u00a0remove clauses prohibiting presidents from seeking re-election or serving consecutive terms, as laid down\u00a0in Article 147 of the constitution. Members of Nicaragua’s Independent Liberal Party —\u00a0which is the main opposition to the ruling\u00a0Sandinistas\u00a0—\u00a0have claimed that this will allow Ortega to rule indefinitely,\u00a0so\u00a0long as he retains\u00a0the\u00a0majority of public support.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Sandinista National Liberation Front plans several other changes to the constitution. These\u00a0changes will allow the\u00a0president to rule by decree in unspecified administrative matters. In addition, a\u00a0prohibition on military officers serving in government positions would be lifted,\u00a0and\u00a0Nicaragua’s disputed territory\u00a0—\u00a0gained from Colombia through an International Court of Justice ruling in 2012\u00a0—\u00a0would\u00a0be included in the constitutional definition of the country’s boundaries.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Although the planned amendments would give Ortega a fourth term as president, his leadership dates back to 1979, when he was the leader of Nicaragua’s post-revolutionary junta. Ortega assumed full presidential control from 1984 to 1990 and made Nicaragua a key Soviet ally in Central America. After a 17-year hiatus, Ortega returned to power in 2007 after brokering a political deal with former President Arnoldo Aleman. The deal lowered the vote threshold for becoming president, enabling the Sandinistas to win the presidential election in 2006. In 2010, the Nicaraguan Supreme Court allowed Ortega to run for an additional four-year term from 2011 onward, despite an existing constitutional prohibition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ortega will most\u00a0likely use the political reorganization to preempt challenges to his party’s rule.\u00a0The Sandinistas are planning for the future at a time when they face few constraints in ruling Nicaragua. The party holds 62 of 92 seats in the National Assembly,\u00a0having\u00a0achieved 62 percent of the vote in the 2011 presidential election, and has\u00a0overall\u00a0political control of\u00a0134\u00a0out\u00a0of 153 municipalities nationwide. Another presidential term would also give the 67-year-old Ortega time to appoint a political successor. A pro-government lawmaker suggested\u00a0that Ortega’s wife, Rosario Murillo, might be a future Sandinista presidential candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/a><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

An Uphill Battle for Opponents<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The reforms coincide with a period of Nicaraguan economic and social stability. According to the Nicaraguan Central Bank, foreign direct investment in the country rose\u00a0from\u00a0around\u00a0$381.7 million in 2007 to $810 million in 2012. Nicaragua’s average minimum wage of $160 per year, which is the lowest in Central America, has made the country <\/span>competitive in low-end manufacturing<\/span><\/span>. Nicaragua is also relatively safe compared to other Central American nations.\u00a0It has avoided the high murder rates and violence associated with drug trafficking <\/span>that have affected Honduras, Guatemala\u00a0and El Salvador<\/span><\/span>. These factors are expected to\u00a0ensure that public approval for the Sandinista government and its populist policies will remain high ahead of the next presidential election, which is scheduled for November 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

The changes to the constitution are unlikely to\u00a0face any immediate challenges from Nicaragua’s political opposition. The Independent Liberal Party only holds 27 seats in the National Assembly,\u00a0a weakness that\u00a0prevents it from rejecting the government’s constitutional initiative outright. Independent Nicaraguan newspapers have also reported that\u00a0some opposition members\u00a0have\u00a0agreed to accept Ortega’s amendments to the constitution in exchange for governmental posts or ambassadorships. Given its political\u00a0ineffectiveness\u00a0and alleged acquiescence to Ortega’s terms, the opposition party cannot realistically prevent any of the constitutional revisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reforms stand a good chance of being approved\u00a0mainly\u00a0because of high unity within\u00a0the Sandinistas. The party has no major political leaders besides Ortega and his wife and no significant dissident factions. There is also no\u00a0obvious\u00a0challenge to Sandinista rule from within the military, due to the fact that\u00a0many of its commanders rose through the officer corps during Ortega’s first term. The president’s\u00a0brother, Humberto Ortega Saavedra, also led the Nicaraguan armed forces from 1979 until 1995.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given\u00a0the rising Nicaraguan economy and the Sandinistas’ popularity\u00a0and continuity, if the constitutional changes are approved any political opponent to Ortega in 2016 will face an uphill battle.\u00a0At the very least, the reforms\u00a0will in all probability\u00a0ensure\u00a0that\u00a0Ortega’s administration can effectively manage the opposition and remain in control of Nicaragua for\u00a0another four-year presidential term.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What do they say about great minds?\u00a0 Seem that they do think alike. 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