{"id":5499,"date":"2012-07-31T09:52:50","date_gmt":"2012-07-31T14:52:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=5499"},"modified":"2012-07-31T09:54:11","modified_gmt":"2012-07-31T14:54:11","slug":"panama-debt-arbitrage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/panama-debt-arbitrage\/","title":{"rendered":"Panama Debt Arbitrage"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/100-dollar-bill.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5500\" title=\"100 dollar bill\" src=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/100-dollar-bill.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"371\" height=\"329\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/100-dollar-bill.jpg 440w, https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/100-dollar-bill-300x265.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 371px) 100vw, 371px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In an article from Prensa,\u00a0\u00a0 Joseph Abbo\u00a0 discusses the cost of debt to Panama which reflects the strength of our economy and yet the flaw that can exist in &#8220;Efficient Market Theory&#8221;.\u00a0 Here is the article titled<\/p>\n<h1>A $100 bill on the Floor<\/h1>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">We think its impossible that someone else wont find it and pick it  up first before we can do it ourselves, but it doesn\u2019t always work out  that way&#8230;<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his opinion piece in Prensa.com, Joseph N. Abbo writes about what he  believes is an example of the &#8220;Efficient Market Theory&#8221; having its  flaws, noting the current situation in the <a title=\"Panama\" href=\"http:\/\/www.centralamericadata.com\/en\/search?q1=content_en_le:%22Panama%22&amp;q2=mattersInCountry_es_le:%22Panama%22\">Panama<\/a>nian  debt market, resulting from a comparison of yields from  the Bono  Global 2020 issued on the international markets and the Nota del Tesoro  (Treasury Note) 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Abbo says that &#8220;The first is trading at the record price of 119.1 and,  therefore, at a cost of capital never before enjoyed by the Republic of  Panama of 2.4% (the yield to maturity for buyers of this certificate).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the other hand, the 2018 Treasury Note issued in the local market is  trading at a price of 108.9% leading to a yield to maturity of 3.3% (the  cost of capital of the Republic). Ironically, this reflects the fact  that international investors trust more in the country\u2019s <a title=\"debt repayment\" href=\"http:\/\/www.centralamericadata.com\/en\/search?q1=content_en_le:%22debt+repayment%22&amp;q2=mattersInCountry_es_le:%22Panama%22\">debt repayment<\/a> capacity than we do.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the other hand, it makes much more sense to maintain a shorter-term  instrument with superior performance at a longer term. Ie, 3.3% for 2018  compared to 2.4% by 2020. This would imply an &#8220;up-for-performance&#8221; of  38%! Both have the same issuer, same credit risk, same rating, same  functional currency. Can you see the bill on the sidewalk? In the strict  sense of the arbitration, the strategy would be to sell the Global 2020  and such funds in order to acquire the PANOTA 2018. But even without  the Global 2020 available for sale, this opportunity can be exploited  simply by buying the PANOTA 2018 before others turn up to take a walk  around these parts.<br \/>\nThis may well happen with the entry of international participants via  the Global Depositary Notes program that allows foreigners to trade in  local certificates, globally. &#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Is the $100 bill still on the floor &#8230;?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In an article from Prensa,\u00a0\u00a0 Joseph Abbo\u00a0 discusses the cost of debt to Panama which reflects the strength<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[42,16,29,19,11,6,20,31,7],"class_list":["post-5499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-estate-planning","tag-exchange-property-in-panama","tag-investments-in-panama","tag-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama","tag-panama-economics","tag-panama-property-exchange","tag-panama-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Panama Debt Arbitrage - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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