{"id":3940,"date":"2011-12-26T10:45:53","date_gmt":"2011-12-26T15:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=3940"},"modified":"2011-12-26T10:45:53","modified_gmt":"2011-12-26T15:45:53","slug":"new-year-allows-for-optimism-even-amid-pessimism-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/new-year-allows-for-optimism-even-amid-pessimism-view\/","title":{"rendered":"New Year Allows for Optimism Even Amid Pessimism: View"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/smile-face.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3941\" title=\"smile face\" src=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/smile-face-300x172.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/smile-face-300x172.jpg 300w, https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/smile-face.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I enjoyed reading this article from Bloomberg that gives an interesting balance to optimism and pessimism for the\u00a0 World in the New Year<\/p>\n<p>For pessimists, the New Year offers an embarrassment of riches.<\/p>\n<p>In the U.S., a bruising presidential election will distract Congress from the crucial business of solving the country\u2019s deep <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=EHBBUS:IND\">fiscal problems<\/a>. Europe is teetering on the brink of a financial disaster that could sink the global economy. <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/china\/\">China<\/a> may be entering a real-estate bust. The Arab Spring has given way, in places, to a violent winter. Russia could be next in line for full-bore rebellion.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s far too easy to see how things could go terribly wrong. Hence, in the spirit of the holiday season, we at Bloomberg View thought it would be more interesting to imagine how they might go right. Here, point by point, is our optimistic case.<\/p>\n<h2>United States<\/h2>\n<p>No doubt, worries about Europe and recurring displays of political brinkmanship are weighing on U.S. households, investors and corporate executives. Such concerns are also getting tiresome. What if businesses and consumers up and decide to get on with life?<\/p>\n<p>There are signs that may be happening. <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=JLTSOPNS:IND\">Indicators<\/a> of hiring intentions are looking better than they have since mid-2008. The <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=NHCHATCH:IND\">housing<\/a> market and <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=SAARTOTL:IND\">auto sales<\/a> are recovering from a summer lull. Gasoline <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=AUTMUSAG:IND\">prices<\/a>, down 16 percent from their peak of more than $4 a gallon in May, are less of a burden on consumers. Economists have been raising their estimates for growth in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Desolate as the political landscape may appear, the election will be fought at least in part on a fundamental issue: how to fix the U.S. government\u2019s finances, and who will pay. Democracy was never intended to be pretty. If the winner emerges with a clear mandate, the U.S. could be in a better position to balance its long-term budget than at any point in the past decade.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/europe\/\">Europe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s sovereign-debt troubles differ from other recent crises in one important way: Almost everybody involved seems to recognize how devastating it would be if euro-area governments failed to act. The threat of Armageddon is pushing Europe\u2019s leaders, step by inadequate step, toward the closer union required to make the currency area viable. Indeed, it\u2019s possible to see the crisis as just the bitter medicine Europe needed.<\/p>\n<p>Success could be transformative. Markets would boom, easing the task of fixing government <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=EUDBEURO:IND\">finances<\/a> and giving a much-needed boost to the global recovery. Ultimately, if euro-area countries pursue the creation of collectively backed <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/government-bonds\/\">government bonds<\/a>, the vast new market might help rebalance the world\u2019s economy by providing central banks and investors with an alternative to U.S. Treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>Even if Europe\u2019s leaders can\u2019t reach agreement on a new fiscal compact before markets lose patience, the <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/european-central-bank\/\">European Central Bank<\/a> may yet have the firepower to prevent a breakup of the euro &#8212; if only it\u2019s willing to use it. The ECB\u2019s move this week to make 489 billion euros ($639 billion) in three-year loans available to banks suggests it might be.<\/p>\n<h2>China<\/h2>\n<p>Recent data on real-estate prices suggest China might be facing the burst bubble many had feared. Although nobody would wish that on the Chinese people or the global economy right now, the shock could provide a useful lesson in the limits of authoritarian rule. Monolithic government and state-directed investment can be effective in pulling countries out of poverty, but not in building a middle class or in reaching the ranks of the world\u2019s wealthy nations.<\/p>\n<p>If economic troubles spur China\u2019s 1.3 billion people to demand more freedom and more of a voice in the way they are governed, the result could be a step in the right direction.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/middle-east\/\">Middle East<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to know what will come of new regimes in <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/egypt\/\">Egypt<\/a>, Libya and <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/tunisia\/\">Tunisia<\/a>. The renewed bloodshed in Cairo\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/tahrir-square\/\">Tahrir Square<\/a>, together with ongoing battles in Syria and Yemen, suggest the Arab world\u2019s democratic struggle could be long and tortuous. Still, it\u2019s possible that by the end of 2012, revolutions in the Middle East will have toppled five dictators. That could open the way for free elections &#8212; as protests have in Tunisia and Egypt &#8212; with moderate (albeit Islamist) governments similar to <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/turkey\/\">Turkey<\/a>\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>On the economic front, greater openness to foreign investment could allow some countries to kick-start growth, much as <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=WBGDPMO:IND\">Morocco<\/a> did in the previous decade. Also, the imperative of reconstruction will push Iraq and <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/libya\/\">Libya<\/a> to accelerate oil production as fast as possible. Their contributions could help keep prices down if <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/iran\/\">Iran<\/a>\u2019s standoff with the rest of the world intensifies.<\/p>\n<h2>Russia<\/h2>\n<p>The intransigence of <a href=\"http:\/\/topics.bloomberg.com\/vladimir-putin\/\">Vladimir Putin<\/a>, who is showing no sign of ceding to protesters\u2019 demands for free and fair elections, might be just the impetus Russia\u2019s civil society needs to spur it into existence.<\/p>\n<p>In one positive sign, the organizers of Moscow\u2019s protests have gone to great lengths to avoid violence. They also have at least one leader, anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny, who appeals to the country\u2019s liberal intelligentsia and might be able to channel rising nationalism in a constructive direction.<\/p>\n<p>The political turmoil has <a title=\"Get Quote\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/quote?ticker=INDEXCF:IND\">spooked (INDEXCF)<\/a> investors, but a Russian Spring could ultimately be a great buying opportunity. Navalny made his name as an activist shareholder, campaigning against embezzlement in big Russian companies. Picture a country in which entrepreneurs no longer face crushing bribery costs, shareholders have rights and investing is more about value than guessing whom the Kremlin will favor. Revolution could bring an economic renaissance.<\/p>\n<p>We recognize, of course, that it would be irresponsible &#8212; and hardly in character for journalists &#8212; to assert that all or any of the above will prove correct. Better to be prepared for the worst. The beauty of pessimism, after all, is that it allows reality to exceed expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I enjoyed reading this article from Bloomberg that gives an interesting balance to optimism and pessimism for the\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Year Allows for Optimism Even Amid Pessimism: View - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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