{"id":35386,"date":"2024-04-12T17:02:05","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T22:02:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=35386"},"modified":"2024-04-12T17:02:05","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T22:02:05","slug":"martinellis-shadow-still-dominates-panama-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/martinellis-shadow-still-dominates-panama-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Martinelli\u2019s Shadow Still Dominates Panama Election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In recent weeks, Nicaragua\u2019s tiny embassy in Panama City has been inundated with lawyers, politicians, and a troop of workmen carrying out renovations for its most famous guest. In February, Ricardo Martinelli, a billionaire businessman and former president, sought asylum there after local courts ratified his 10-year prison sentence for money laundering and declared his bid for president illegal. Ever since, through his social media and that of his dog Bruno, Martinelli has been campaigning heavily ahead of Panama\u2019s general election on May 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a>He is backing the candidacy of Jos\u00e9 Ra\u00fal Mulino, who was his running mate before he was banned from the race and had served as public security minister during Martinelli\u2019s administration (2009-14). Before he was banned, Martinelli held a comfortable lead in the polls, and now Mulino regularly polls 13-25 percentage points ahead of his&nbsp;<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/meet-the-candidates-panama-2\/#Torrijos\">three closest rivals<\/a>: Ricardo Lombana, former President Mart\u00edn Torrijos, and R\u00f3mulo Roux. Panamanian elections have no second round, meaning Mulino is likely to win the race for the Palacio de las Garzas, the presidential palace that overlooks the bay of Panama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Less than a month before the election, the Constitutional Court is weighing whether to revoke Mulino\u2019s candidacy as well, on what amounts to a technicality: he wasn\u2019t chosen through his party\u2019s primaries (as Martinelli was before his ban).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In recent weeks, his rivals have concentrated their attacks on Mulino, but he has not participated in televised debates and has largely avoided interviews. Voters have heard little about his specific policy proposals for a country facing urgent challenges. The closure of the Cobre Panam\u00e1 mine is projected to inflict a 4% loss of GDP, the social security system faces an existential liquidity crisis, and external debt has risen 78% to $47 billion under the term of outgoing president Nito Cortizo. On April 1 Fitch Ratings&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/panama-credit-rating-cut-junk-170601636.html?guccounter=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">downgraded<\/a>&nbsp;Panama\u2019s sovereign debt from investment grade. Meanwhile, delays to shipping due to water shortages at the Panama Canal, and record waves of migration passing through the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/the-predatory-economy-thriving-in-panamas-darien-gap\/\">Dari\u00e9n Gap<\/a>&nbsp;have made international headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of policy, Mulino is leaning on Martinelli\u2019s reputation, promising to put more&nbsp;<em>chen ch\u00e9n\u2014<\/em>the local slang for cash\u2014in people\u2019s pockets. Many voters remember the economic boom of Martinelli\u2019s presidency when GDP growth regularly topped 6% and the completion of metro lines in Panama City provided jobs and made the amenities of the city center more accessible to the urban poor. Similarly, Mulino promises 7% growth, greater youth employment, the highest minimum wage in Latin America, and major infrastructure projects. He has also vowed to help Martinelli reduce or escape his prison sentence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the growth under Martinelli had little to do with his skill as an economic manager and will be impossible to replicate under a Mulino government, according to Dulcidio de La Guardia, who served as vice minister of finance under Martinelli. \u201cPanama was riding the wave of the expansion of the Panama Canal and the investments it brought into the country, [which] gave the Martinelli administration the ability to spend and invest money that they could not have done otherwise,\u201d he told&nbsp;<em>AQ<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second pillar of Martinelli\u2019s popularity is his cultivated persona as a political outsider and a dedicated antagonist of the&nbsp;<em>rabiblancos,&nbsp;<\/em>Panama\u2019s political and economic elite. In 2022 and 2023, Panama was rocked by two unprecedented protest movements. The first was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/in-panama-protesters-want-deeper-reform\/\">sparked<\/a>&nbsp;by the rising cost of living, deficient social services, and Panama\u2019s reputation as one of the region\u2019s most unequal countries, and the second&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/panamas-protests-are-about-more-than-a-mine\/\">erupted<\/a>&nbsp;in opposition to the government\u2019s rushed and opaque renegotiation of the massive Cobre Panam\u00e1 mine contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both movements revealed broad public mistrust of the ruling Partido Revolucionario Democr\u00e1tico (PRD) and the wider political-economic elite for their involvement in a slew of corruption scandals and for failing to meet the needs of the public. A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cieps.org.pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/informe_ECD_CIEPS_2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2023 survey<\/a>&nbsp;found that over two-thirds of Panamanians wanted radical change, with corruption identified as the country\u2019s biggest problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The prospect of the Constitutional Court revoking Mulino\u2019s candidacy only adds to the impression, held by many, that the&nbsp;<em>rabiblanco<\/em>s are unfairly singling Martinelli out. His defiant social media posts, often recorded from the Nicaraguan embassy\u2019s home gym, pander to his image as a victim of political persecution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Panamanian voter identifies with the underdog,\u201d Miguel Antonio Bernal, a lawyer and political commentator, told&nbsp;<em>AQ<\/em>. \u201cThere are many voters who say, \u201cI\u2019m going to vote for Mulino to screw with the [political classes], because I\u2019m tired of all this.\u201d\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Martinelli may be corrupt, but the current attempts to ban Mulino\u2019s candidacy are an example of the Electoral Tribunal bypassing due process and bowing to the demands of the elites, according to Bernal. It represents a far wider decay of the country\u2019s institutions, where the Congress, in particular, has been infected by money originating from drug gangs. Recently, the Electoral Tribunal expressed concern about the level of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laestrella.com.pa\/panama\/politica\/alfredo-junca-ve-preocupacion-HKLE476616\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">drug money<\/a>&nbsp;in campaign financing, and last year, the National Assembly twice rejected a law giving the state greater power&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laestrella.com.pa\/panama\/nacional\/asamblea-mantiene-engavetado-proyecto-LMLE500308\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">to seize<\/a>assets from the illicit businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe\u2019re becoming less of a society every day,\u201d Bernal said. \u201cAfter the U.S. invasion [of 1989] we were put in a zoo. Now the current government arrived and we have returned to the jungle.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Change on the horizon<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The root cause of this frustration, says Bernal, is a constitution that has not been changed since Panama returned to democracy following the overthrow of Manuel Noriega in 1989.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All the leading candidates are proposing significant changes to Panama\u2019s constitution. Most want to introduce a second round for presidential election. Cortizo won in 2019 with a third of votes cast, Mulino could do so with just a quarter. But wider reforms will be needed to prevent the further decay of public institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u201cA constituent assembly cannot be put off,\u201d Ricardo Lombana told&nbsp;<em>AQ<\/em>, \u201cWe are at an inflection point, we can become a narcostate where dirty money takes total control\u2026or we can make a rescue effort towards better days.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For his part, Roux, representing the traditional Paname\u00f1ista Party, has said he would call a constituent assembly \u201cto dismantle the political system which protects and shields impunity.\u201d Torrijos, the son of Panamanian national hero Omar Torrijos, also supports constitutional change but warned that it would not be a \u201cpanacea\u201d for the country\u2019s problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">True to form, Mulino has also said he would call a constituent assembly without specifying the details. Since the U.S. relinquished control of the Canal at the turn of the millennium, Panama has seen over twenty years of strong economic growth. It remains, however, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.worldbank.org\/es\/latinamerica\/logros-innovaciones-desafios-panama-erradicacion-pobreza\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">third most unequal<\/a>country in Latin America. In 2024 the country faces major economic challenges, but the political difficulties are just as serious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size has-small-font-size\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/panama-placeholder\/\">Source<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In recent weeks, Nicaragua\u2019s tiny embassy in Panama City has been inundated with lawyers, politicians, and a troop<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":35387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[241,42,219,7,246],"class_list":["post-35386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-boquete-real-estate","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-move-to-panama","tag-panama-real-estate","tag-relocate-to-panama"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Martinelli\u2019s Shadow Still Dominates Panama Election - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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