{"id":28397,"date":"2020-03-31T12:02:53","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T17:02:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=28397"},"modified":"2020-03-31T12:04:07","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T17:04:07","slug":"imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama"},"content":{"rendered":"

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On March 24, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1]<\/sup> <\/a> with Panama and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting. [2]<\/sup> <\/a>After a decade of high growth, the economy slowed in 2018\u201319 and growth is estimated to have reached 3.0 percent in 2019. Inflation slid below zero for most of the year due to soft demand, while credit growth decelerated. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.1 percent in August 2019, compared to 6.0 percent the previous year. However, economic activity remained subdued despite copper exports, which helped to narrow the external current account deficit to 5.2 percent of GDP. Confronted with a sharp revenue shortfall in mid-2019, the new government decided to revise the fiscal rule widening the deficit ceiling of the non-financial public sector to 3.5 percent of GDP (from 2.0 percent in 2018), and gradually adjusting it in subsequent years. In the event, the fiscal deficit amounted to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2019, which together with the uncovering of previously unrecorded arrears of over 2 percent of GDP, increased central government debt to 46.2 percent of GDP (although still below historical levels). Panama was placed on the FATF grey list in June 2019, with limited impact on the economy and the banking system thus far, and the government has initiated reforms to address the remaining deficiencies in AML\/CFT.<\/p>\n

For 2020, the deficit will likely surpass the limit under the fiscal rule of 2.75 percent of GDP as there will be a need to support the economy and increase public health spending in view of the current situation with COVID-19.<\/p>\n

Executive Board Assessment [3]<\/sup> <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

In concluding the 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama, Executive Directors endorsed staff\u2019s appraisal, as follows:<\/p>\n

Growth is expected to rebound in 2020. Economic activity is projected to recover after a slowdown in 2018-19, supported by full-scale copper production and robust private investment. Growth over the medium-term is expected to remain at its potential. Key risks relate to setbacks in exiting the FATF grey list and complying with SFRL deficit ceilings as well as a slowdown in Canal traffic amid escalating trade tensions, weak growth in key trade partner countries, and the coronavirus outbreak. While external imbalances are expected to decline over the medium-term, the external position is moderately weaker than fundamentals and desirable policy settings.<\/p>\n

Sustained fiscal discipline is required for fiscal policy credibility and to keep public debt on a downward trajectory. Amid a relatively high deficit exacerbated by newly discovered unrecorded arrears, Central Administration debt reached 46.2 percent of GDP in 2019. The modified gradual adjustment of the deficit ceiling under the SFRL is appropriate to smooth the pace of necessary fiscal consolidation. In addition, the authorities should consider using a \u201cshadow\u201d structural rule in the future to build fiscal buffers.<\/p>\n

A realignment of fiscal revenue and expenditures is imperative to sustain growth. In addition to improving the capacity of tax and customs administrations, action is required to review Panama\u2019s complex tax exemptions that continually erode the tax base. On the expenditure side, realigning current spending with social needs\u2014including by investing more in education\u2014and improving the effectiveness of social spending will be crucial to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. Capital projects need to be carefully assessed and prioritized going forward.<\/p>\n

The pension system needs to be strengthened. Faced with slowing population growth, the authorities need to gradually align pension contributions with expected payouts, to avoid creating an undue burden to the public finances in the long run. Given the politically sensitive nature of such adjustments, a slow-paced approach is recommended.<\/p>\n

Strengthening the fiscal framework is essential to improving the macroeconomic policy toolkit. The emergence of sizable unrecorded arrears highlights the need to strengthen budgetary execution rules and misuse penalties as well as to streamline the recording of fiscal accounts by limiting the use of turnkey projects and deferred payment contracts in public investment projects.<\/p>\n

Exiting the FATF grey list must remain a priority. Building on the momentum of recent legislative action, the authorities should continue addressing the deficiencies in Panama\u2019s AML\/CFT regime and legal framework identified by the FATF. In addition, the authorities should address the shortcomings identified in the 2019 Global Forum review on global tax transparency, including by responding to exchange-of-information requests in a timely manner.<\/p>\n

The financial sector remains robust, but macrofinancial risks warrant continued monitoring. Addressing data gaps with respect to household and corporate balance sheets and property prices remains a priority. Specifically, improving housing price indices would facilitate financial-sector surveillance.<\/p>\n

The alignment of prudential regulations with Basel III is welcome. The authorities should focus on macroprudential tools and further upgrading the regulatory toolkit. It will also be important to put in place robust frameworks for crisis management, including by adequate liquidity support for banks and enhancing the range of resolution tools available to failed banks.<\/p>\n

The fintech sector holds potential in the presence of an appropriate regulatory framework. Adopting cybersecurity and fintech regulatory frameworks while capitalizing on Panama\u2019s digital and mobile connectivity could place the country as a regional fintech hub, enhancing financial inclusion, and lowering intermediation costs.<\/p>\n

A reinforcement of the structural reform agenda will be necessary to maintain high potential growth. Sustaining high rates of growth will require continued improvements in productivity and competitiveness, a strengthening of policies related to labor mobility, governance and institutional capacity, and enhancing the innovation and technological sophistication in key industries. To remain an attractive destination for doing business, Panama needs to upgrade the skill level of its workforce, streamline the insolvency framework and improve the functioning of the judicial system.<\/p>\n

Addressing social inequities is urgent. Revamping social policies is imperative to maintain broad-based and inclusive growth and requires strategic policy action in the areas of education, gender equality, social protection programs, and poverty reduction in the comarcas.<\/p>\n

Panama\u2019s climate change mitigation strategy and commitments are welcome. Beyond \u201cgreen\u201d energy provision, the authorities should be mindful of natural resource preservation, especially in view of the country\u2019s susceptibility to extreme weather events. Most notably, the pressure for better water management is mounting both from the expanded Canal operations and a growing population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Table 1. Panama: Selected Economic and Social Indicators <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Population (millions, 2018) 4.2<\/td>\nPoverty line (percent, 2017) 20.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Population growth rate (percent, 2018) 1.6<\/p>\n

Life expectancy at birth (years, 2017) 78.1<\/p>\n

Total unemployment rate (August, 2019) 7.1<\/td>\n

Adult literacy rate (percent, 2018) 95.4<\/p>\n

GDP per capita (US$, 2018) 15,507<\/p>\n

IMF Quota (SDR, million) 376.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Est.<\/td>\nProjections<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016<\/td>\n2017<\/td>\n2018<\/td>\n2019<\/td>\n2020<\/td>\n2021<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Production and prices<\/strong><\/td>\n(Percent change)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real GDP (2007 prices)<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n5.6<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consumer price index (average)<\/td>\n0.7<\/td>\n0.9<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n-0.4<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consumer price index (end-of-year)<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n0.2<\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n1.0<\/td>\n2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Output gap (% of potential)<\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n0.3<\/td>\n-0.7<\/td>\n-0.9<\/td>\n-0.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Demand components (at constant prices) <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Public consumption<\/td>\n10.1<\/td>\n6.5<\/td>\n7.5<\/td>\n8.7<\/td>\n2.1<\/td>\n5.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private consumption<\/td>\n7.1<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Public investment 1\/<\/sup><\/td>\n49.0<\/td>\n-20.7<\/td>\n7.0<\/td>\n-5.2<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n5.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private investment<\/td>\n-5.5<\/td>\n14.9<\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n-3.7<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Exports<\/td>\n-4.3<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n-0.3<\/td>\n7.2<\/td>\n6.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Imports<\/td>\n-4.8<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n-2.7<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n7.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Financial sector<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private sector credit<\/td>\n8.4<\/td>\n6.5<\/td>\n4.5<\/td>\n0.2<\/td>\n4.6<\/td>\n6.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Broad money<\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n5.2<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n4.6<\/td>\n6.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average deposit rate (1-year)<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average lending rate (1-year)<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Savings-investment balance<\/strong><\/td>\n(In percent of GDP)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross domestic investment<\/td>\n40.5<\/td>\n41.7<\/td>\n41.3<\/td>\n38.4<\/td>\n38.6<\/td>\n38.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Public sector<\/td>\n7.8<\/td>\n5.9<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n5.2<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private sector<\/td>\n32.7<\/td>\n35.8<\/td>\n35.2<\/td>\n33.2<\/td>\n33.6<\/td>\n33.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross national saving<\/td>\n32.7<\/td>\n35.8<\/td>\n33.1<\/td>\n33.2<\/td>\n32.0<\/td>\n31.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Public sector<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n2.6<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private sector<\/td>\n28.8<\/td>\n31.5<\/td>\n28.9<\/td>\n30.7<\/td>\n29.4<\/td>\n29.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Public finances<\/strong>1\/<\/sup><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Revenue and grants<\/td>\n22.6<\/td>\n22.0<\/td>\n21.9<\/td>\n20.8<\/td>\n20.4<\/td>\n20.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Expenditure<\/td>\n24.8<\/td>\n24.2<\/td>\n24.8<\/td>\n23.4<\/td>\n22.8<\/td>\n22.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Current, including interest<\/td>\n16.7<\/td>\n17.0<\/td>\n17.1<\/td>\n17.8<\/td>\n17.5<\/td>\n17.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital<\/td>\n8.0<\/td>\n6.9<\/td>\n6.5<\/td>\n5.6<\/td>\n5.3<\/td>\n5.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Overall balance, including ACP<\/td>\n-2.2<\/td>\n-2.2<\/td>\n-2.9<\/td>\n-2.6<\/td>\n-2.4<\/td>\n-2.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Overall balance, excluding ACP<\/td>\n-2.0<\/td>\n-2.2<\/td>\n-3.2<\/td>\n-3.1<\/td>\n-2.7<\/td>\n-2.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total public debt<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt of the Non-financial public sector 2\/<\/sup><\/td>\n34.8<\/td>\n34.8<\/td>\n36.8<\/td>\n41.0<\/td>\n42.1<\/td>\n42.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
External<\/td>\n28.5<\/td>\n28.7<\/td>\n30.5<\/td>\n34.9<\/td>\n35.3<\/td>\n34.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Domestic<\/td>\n6.3<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n6.2<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n6.8<\/td>\n7.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt of ACP<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.6<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Other 3\/<\/sup><\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n4.2<\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
External sector<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Current account<\/td>\n-7.8<\/td>\n-5.9<\/td>\n-8.2<\/td>\n-5.2<\/td>\n-6.1<\/td>\n-5.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Net exports from Colon Free Zone<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n1.4<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Net oil imports<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n2.6<\/td>\n2.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Net foreign direct investment inflows<\/td>\n7.9<\/td>\n6.9<\/td>\n7.9<\/td>\n6.3<\/td>\n5.1<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
External debt<\/td>\n159.9<\/td>\n149.6<\/td>\n151.8<\/td>\n156.5<\/td>\n160.2<\/td>\n160.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Memorandum item <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP (in millions of US$)<\/td>\n57,908<\/td>\n62,219<\/td>\n65,128<\/td>\n66,801<\/td>\n69,850<\/td>\n74,443<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sources: Comptroller General; Superintendency of Banks; and IMF staff calculations.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1\/ Includes Panama Canal Authority (ACP). Includes Staff adjustment to account for the accrual of previously unrecorded expenditure for 2015-18.<\/p>\n

2\/ Non-Financial Public Sector according to the definition in Law 31 of 2011.<\/p>\n

3\/ Includes debt of public enterprises outside the national definition of NFPS (ENA, ETESA, and AITSA) and non-consolidated agencies.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/section>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  On March 24, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[242,12,241,39,248,34,33,62,42,219,11,249,243,7,255,246,244,260],"class_list":["post-28397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-boca-chica-real-estate","tag-boquete","tag-boquete-real-estate","tag-buenaventura","tag-casco","tag-casco-antiguo","tag-casco-viejo","tag-coffee-in-panama","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-move-to-panama","tag-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-papers","tag-panama-real-estate","tag-panama-real-estate-bocas-del-toro","tag-relocate-to-panama","tag-rum-in-panama","tag-travel-to-panama-rent-in-boquete"],"yoast_head":"\nIMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  On March 24, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Blog and Newsletter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100088396493750\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-31T17:02:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-31T17:04:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/imf-1024x488.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Adrian Prozzo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Adrian Prozzo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Adrian Prozzo\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6c118309f214f7da81db90c9905c5e69\"},\"headline\":\"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-31T17:02:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-31T17:04:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1277,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/imf-1024x488.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Boca Chica Real Estate\",\"Boquete\",\"Boquete Real Estate\",\"buenaventura\",\"casco\",\"casco antiguo\",\"casco viejo\",\"coffee in panama\",\"estate homes in Panama\",\"move to panama\",\"offshore real estate\",\"Panama Offshore real estate\",\"Panama Papers\",\"Panama Real Estate\",\"Panama Real Estate Bocas del Toro\",\"relocate to panama\",\"Rum in Panama\",\"travel to panama Rent in Boquete\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News from Panama\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\\\/blog\\\/imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation-panama\\\/\",\"name\":\"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama - 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