{"id":27178,"date":"2019-10-01T14:07:13","date_gmt":"2019-10-01T19:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=27178"},"modified":"2019-10-01T14:07:13","modified_gmt":"2019-10-01T19:07:13","slug":"miami-real-estate-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/miami-real-estate-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Under the subject “Here we go again”.\u00a0 But, But But, it is different this time and can’t happen!\u00a0 Right.<\/p>\n

Submitted by Harris Kupperman of Adventures in Capitalism<\/a><\/p>\n

Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country. \u00a0In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami.<\/p>\n

Roughly a year ago, I noticed that Miami property prices started to decline after a two or three-year period of leveling off. The pace of decline has clearly accelerated recently. Most properties on South Beach (where I live) are off by 20 to 35% from peak prices, but that is nothing compared to the carnage across the bridge in areas like Brickell and Edgewater.<\/p>\n

Why are prices dropping? It\u2019s more than simple supply and demand\u2014though the glut of new supply is clearly part of it. Rather, your typical condo has a carrying cost of 4-7% of fair value before financing costs (property tax\/condo fees\/insurance\/maintenance\/special assessments\/etc). This adds up fast when a property is worth hundreds of thousands or even millions. It is pretty much mathematically impossible to have a positive yield from buying and renting out a Miami condo (trust me, I\u2019ve done the math many times). The only way owning is viable, is if prices go up and allow you to extract capital to fund the carrying costs\u2014though debt service then makes the monthly cash flow even worse. The basic law of Miami condo pricing is that if prices stop going up, they collapse due to the carrying cost. Suddenly, it seems as though a lot of owners are becoming financially distressed\u2014forcing them to hit bids at a time when demand is somewhat lacking.<\/p>\n

With all of that in mind, I got drinks last weekend with a buddy in the hard-money lending market to discuss the state of the market. For those of you who are unfamiliar with hard-money lending, these are loans made on the basis of the asset value, not the ability of the borrower to pay. In fact, in some cases it is assumed that the borrower will not repay the loan and through penalty interest, you rapidly chew through their equity and get to own a high-quality property at a great initial entry price. This works well in an up market. How does it work when things go no-bid?<\/p>\n

Friend: Holy sh*t Kuppy, it\u2019s about to blow!!<\/p>\n

Me: You said that 3 months ago\u2026<\/p>\n

Friend: It\u2019s different now, the whole system is jammed up.<\/p>\n

Me: What do you mean?<\/p>\n

Friend: Before, when a borrower would default, we\u2019d put him into penalty default interest (which is 25% on loans over $500k in Florida).\u00a0 My business is to underwrite safe loans and to clip a coupon, not to own real estate.\u00a0 The lenders that ARE looking for big returns (and risks and headaches) on real estate watch the public records for notices of defaults and then barrage the distressed borrower with offers of 12-16%, interest only private loans\u2026 not any borrower\u2019s idea of a good time but still better than 25% default rate plus legal fees.\u00a0 These offers often come with periods of prepaid interest that temporarily take some pressure off the borrower\u2026 but also help sharpen the axe for when it finally falls (larger, artificially inflated final loan amount). \u00a0We could play these same games with the defaulted borrowers, but my investors want the defaulted paper off the books\u2014we don\u2019t want to re-possess the property and have to sell it. Our specialty is underwriting\u2014not foreclosure. We\u2019re happy when someone takes our problems away.<\/p>\n

Me: So?<\/p>\n

Friend: The story usually ends with a \u201cfire sale\u201d of the property by the defaulted borrower or by the lender (after foreclosure).\u00a0 End users are seeing that the \u201cfire sale\u201d price may very well be next quarter\u2019s market price, and the units aren\u2019t moving.\u00a0 Even the County foreclosure sales, which have been loaded with fix-and flip reality TV fans bidding 110% of value for the past 5 years, are seeing below market priced deals with no bids.<\/p>\n

Suddenly, no one wants our defaulted borrowers. The shark lenders are all jammed up with loans they poached last year. They used to be able to recycle their capital by selling the assets, but now they can\u2019t. This means that no one is buying the distressed loans off our books without demanding a discount on principal. The whole conveyer belt is frozen. Even a few months ago, there were still idiots from out of town, or kids with daddy\u2019s offshore money who\u2019d come down here with a new hard money-fund and make stupid decisions. Now those guys are jammed up too or at least they\u2019re not coming down here anymore. This means that we need to now take possession of our defaults.<\/p>\n

Me: How\u2019s that going?<\/p>\n

Friend: Lemme explain it this way. We underwrote this one deal two years ago for a $4.5 million purchase of a new construction condo, we leant $2 million against it. The guy defaulted and we\u2019re up to $2.5 million in principal and default interest and we took possession\u2014figuring we were plenty protected by over a million in equity left on the asset. Remember, our basis is $2 million. Well, it\u2019s been for sale for 9 months now. It may not even trade with a 2-handle. Meanwhile, I\u2019m stuck carrying the thing\u2014which isn\u2019t cheap. I have no idea how to even sell it. We\u2019re on our 3rd broker now. No one has a clue what to do with it, yet these assholes keep building more product.<\/p>\n

Me: Welcome to the Miami property cycle. If your build cost is $300 a foot and you think you can sell it for $700, you\u2019ll flood the market. Once you\u2019ve made a \u201cgo decision\u201d you\u2019re gonna finish the thing\u2014even if you only sell it for $200 in the end.<\/p>\n

Him: It\u2019s even worse. Every month they break ground on hundreds of additional units when the existing ones won\u2019t sell. Some of the most high-profile buildings have had less than 50% sell-through and the majority of what\u2019s \u201csold\u201d is immediately dumped onto the market unfinished and unfurnished, below the developer sale price for fear that the developer will drop his price and leave these guys even further underwater. Pretty soon they\u2019ll all be forced into another round of price cuts. It makes no sense to build more, but they keep doing it!!<\/p>\n

Me: Won\u2019t the 50-bps the fed cut help clear the log-jam?<\/p>\n

Him: Are you f*cking kidding me? I\u2019m charging these guys 10% because they cannot get traditional loans. They can cut a few points off rates and it wouldn\u2019t matter. Besides, the guys who qualify for real loans are all selling because they cannot hold onto their own properties. That\u2019s why every third unit is suddenly for sale. Prices stopped going up and the whole thing blew apart and now there\u2019s no buyers. Remember, the price for a whole building is set on the last trade. Banks look at the data and won\u2019t underwrite new loans.<\/p>\n

Me: So, what are you doing to clear these bad assets?<\/p>\n

Him: I have no idea. I\u2019ll probably smack the bid wherever it is and take the hit\u2014before someone else does. At least I won\u2019t have to keep making condo payments and 2% property tax payments. My fund has basically stopped lending on condos and is well below 50% LTV on everything else. We\u2019re building cash. I don\u2019t want any more of this crap on my balance sheet!! A surprising number of my existing loans are starting to go bad. I know what my competitors underwrote, trust me, they\u2019re in MUCH worse shape. They underwrote all sorts of nonsense that I wouldn\u2019t ever touch. I\u2019ll be fine, but they\u2019re toast.<\/p>\n

Me: \u2026and Bank of Ozarks<\/a>? Haha<\/p>\n

Him: They underwrote the stuff the scumbag local lenders wouldn\u2019t touch at 15%, but those jokers got paid fed funds plus 3 to take the risk. We should build a fund to pick at their carcass in 2 years. Good thing they just popped down a new branch in Sunset Harbor. We can use it as the REO office. Haha<\/p>\n

Me: Why isn\u2019t any of this showing up in the data yet?<\/p>\n

Him: Most traditional borrowers have money and are trying to hold on. Besides, property is a slow burn process. Guys are in extreme pain, transaction volumes have collapsed, properties on offer have exploded. Eventually someone blinks, people realize where the real marks are on their assets, then they ask themselves why they are paying 10% a year to hold onto something that they\u2019re underwater on and dropping in price. It\u2019s going to be just like 2009. Wait 6 or 9 more months. They can take rates to zero, it won\u2019t matter. That\u2019s not the key cost of holding these things anyway.<\/p>\n

Me: Will it really be as bad as last cycle?<\/p>\n

Him: Last time, a lot of the stuff that defaulted was upper middle-class product. It just needed lower prices and it eventually cleared. This time, the glut is fake \u201csuper-luxury.\u201d 3,500 ft units with private exterior jacuzzies don\u2019t ever clear. The property tax is $50,000 alone. Who the hell can afford this stuff? You can give it away for free. A middle-class guy cannot afford to hold it. Last cycle, it was a few hundred units of high-end that went bad. Now you have whole city blocks that are nothing but high end. 200 units per building. There\u2019s thousands and thousands of these things. The property prices can halve and that means the property tax halves, but you\u2019re still paying condo fees and remember, when your neighbors stop paying, you\u2019re on the hook for their payments.<\/p>\n

There aren\u2019t enough rich Venezuelans and Russians to buy all these units. Besides, those guys aren\u2019t buying here anymore. They\u2019re scared of Trump and they\u2019re broke anyway. This time it really is gonna blow\u2026<\/p>\n

Me: Sweet!! Lemme know when I can get a great deal on something nice.<\/p>\n\n

\n

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    Under the subject “Here we go again”.\u00a0 But, But But, it is different this time and can’t happen!\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[242,12,241,39,248,34,33,62,42,219,11,249,243,7,255,246,244,44],"class_list":["post-27178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-boca-chica-real-estate","tag-boquete","tag-boquete-real-estate","tag-buenaventura","tag-casco","tag-casco-antiguo","tag-casco-viejo","tag-coffee-in-panama","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-move-to-panama","tag-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-papers","tag-panama-real-estate","tag-panama-real-estate-bocas-del-toro","tag-relocate-to-panama","tag-rum-in-panama","tag-travel-to-panama"],"yoast_head":"\nMiami Real Estate Is About To Collapse - Blog and 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