{"id":25184,"date":"2019-01-28T13:12:16","date_gmt":"2019-01-28T18:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=25184"},"modified":"2019-01-30T10:58:25","modified_gmt":"2019-01-30T15:58:25","slug":"doug-casey-view-world-picks-war-europe-bets-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/doug-casey-view-world-picks-war-europe-bets-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"Doug Casey view of the World \u2013 Picks War in Europe and bets on Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

While I am not sure about war in Europe, it is a possibility and one thing I am sure about is Argentina which is very affordable and has a lot of classy places like Buenos Aires where housing is a bargain now.\u00a0 Panama also gets a nod from Doug as the most interesting country in Central America.<\/p>\n

Here is the article as published by my friend in Argentina Geoffrey McRae CEO of Gateway to South America.<\/p>\n

by Doug Casey
\nInternational Man
\nEUROPE<\/strong><\/p>\n

From at least the 1600s, Europe could claim to be the center of world civilization on all fronts. The colonies of the Portuguese, Spanish, English, French, and Russian empires (with the Dutch, Germans, Italians, and Americans as bit players) covered almost the entire planet. In its early days, an empire is both fun and profitable. You get to loot and pillage at will, and an empire provides lots of room to relocate the disenchanted, the overly adventurous, and the criminals. But the natives pick up the imported technology and customs, and they start to resent the intrusion of foreigners on their turf. At that point, an empire becomes a liability and a gigantic cost, since it needs to be defended. The Romans discovered that, and their descendants are rediscovering it. Once an empire starts falling apart, trying to stop it is like trying to stop a tree from falling once its roots have rotted. It can\u2019t be done, and it\u2019s best not to be around when it happens.<\/p>\n

The way I see it, Western Europe is living off its accumulated capital, and it can take a while to burn through assets accumulated over hundreds of years. But they\u2019re doing that quickly, as enamored as the continent has been with socialism. The other thing that\u2019s kept its head above water is \u201cblack money.\u201d The convenience of having lots of other countries nearby has helped make Europeans skilled and successful tax evaders; this has given them a lot more capital than they would have otherwise had, to use productively. But the rise of the EU, the U.S.\/EU drive for \u201ctax harmonization\u201d and against money laundering, and the lust to regulate coming out of Brussels will quash most of the continent\u2019s remaining productivity. The place is on a very slippery economic slope.<\/p>\n

Will the EU last, and will the euro continue to exist? I would bet against it. A simple free-trade pact (no restrictions on the movement of goods, capital, and labor) in Europe would have been a huge boon to everyone. But, no. That would have been way too simple. They had to try to make it into a one-size-fits-all burnoose that fits no one. Here\u2019s what will happen. The EU will fall apart, with bad feelings all around, recriminations for subsidies and loans, and a rebirth of nationalism. The euro will cease to exist, with more bad feelings and a lot of money lost, by what\u2019s left of the middle class. And then it will be back to business as usual, which for Europe tends to mean war.<\/p>\n

There are two big complicating factors here: Demography and Islam.<\/p>\n

Every country in Europe is in serious demographic decline; this is to be expected as any society becomes more educated and more urban. It\u2019s aggravated, I think, by the continent\u2019s pervasive socialism. When the state acts as your parent, you tend to never grow up, leave home, and have a family. The state wants to take care of your kids, and your kids don\u2019t need to take care of you. So the decline of Europe\u2019s native population is likely to continue, if not accelerate.<\/p>\n

This relates to Islam. It\u2019s well known that due to heavy immigration from their old colonies (North Africa for France, Pakistan, and India for Britain, Indonesia for Holland) and other reasons in the case of Germany and Switzerland (mostly Turkish immigration), the population of Europe has changed radically over the last 30 years. Furthermore, the trend is accelerating, because the Muslims, for whatever reasons, tend to have large families. So, it\u2019s said, in another 30 years most of the countries in Europe will have Muslim majorities or significant pluralities.<\/p>\n

Frankly, I don\u2019t care where people come from, what color they are, or what superstitions they may hold (as long as they don\u2019t try to impose them on me). But it seems predictable that this demographic revolution, especially coming at a time of rising nationalism, is going to lead to some serious conflict. Could Europe turn into a large-scale Bosnia? I\u2019m not predicting it will, but it\u2019s not out of the question.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: Europe is fine for vacations (even though it\u2019s way too constipated and way too expensive to suit my taste). But for an expat looking for a permanent base, you would be asking for trouble.<\/p>\n

THE ISLAMIC WORLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been talking about Muslims in Europe. Does it make any sense to look to reverse the flow? I have to say, regrettably, no. One reason is that Muslims tend to take their religion much more seriously than Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, or any other group I can think of. Islam is more than a religion, it\u2019s an all-encompassing world view, with serious economic, political, and social implications. It\u2019s one thing being a tourist or a visiting businessman in one of the 40-something Islamic countries, but I think it\u2019s something else entirely to focus your life there.<\/p>\n

All these countries were ex-European colonies, which has left lingering resentment in some quarters. And practically all of these countries were created \u2013 Iraq, Jordan, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia, Afghanistan, Fuhgedabouditstan \u2013 by fiat in a European boardroom, with zero regards to existing ethnic, linguistic, and cultural distinctions. That means they\u2019re all intrinsically unstable, and most of these \u201ccountries\u201d will fall apart sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n

The situation is aggravated by the ongoing and growing War on Islam \u2013 called by the more politically correct, but ridiculous and dishonest moniker, the War on Terror. This is really just a continuation of what\u2019s been going on, sporadically, since the Crusades. I think it\u2019s going to get much more serious before it goes into remission again.<\/p>\n

If you want to see the pyramids, rent a villa in Marrakesh, or speculate on property in Dubai (or Cairo, as a friend of mine, is currently doing), that\u2019s one thing. As a focus, I think it\u2019s a mistake.<\/p>\n

AFRICA<\/strong><\/p>\n

The whole continent is a nearly unmitigated disaster and tragedy. There are some who say that Africa would have been forever grateful to Europe if Da Gama had just thrown a wheel ashore as he was rounding the Cape. But he would have also had to throw out an instruction book. And nobody on the continent knew how to read.<\/p>\n

My own view is that European colonization was the worst thing that could have happened to Africa. It\u2019s true that the Africans were living in primitive conditions; but that would have changed organically, through trade, if Europeans had arrived as merchants instead of conquerors. What happened is that every country on the continent (with the exceptions of Egypt and Ethiopia) is a totally artificial figment of some European bureaucrat\u2019s imagination.<\/p>\n

Every government on the continent is a kleptocracy. If you\u2019re an ambitious African who wants to make money, you try to take control of the state and then cement your position by filling every important position with friends and tribal relations. The state can then serve as your personal piggy bank. Pre-conquest Africa was no model of libertarian equity, but the thousands of tribes at least had societies and economies that had worked over many generations.<\/p>\n

Military conquest allowed the overnight infusion of advanced technologies and a political structure that submerged the natives and their cultures. Worse, the ones that got a Western education were indoctrinated with the totally alien philosophy of Marxism and the alien religion of Christianity. This guaranteed long-term conflict with the equally alien religion of Islam. The poor African, who previously lived in about the most traditional of all societies, was uprooted and set adrift in every way possible.<\/p>\n

As far as I\u2019m concerned, Africa (with a few exceptions \u2013 Ghana, Namibia, perhaps Mozambique \u2013 and I would have picked Ivory Coast, as well, before the place blew up ten years ago) is going nowhere, until the present nation-states are restructured or disappear.<\/p>\n

Before 1960, Africa was a safe and mellow place. Since then, it\u2019s been turbulent and dangerous, but with opportunities mainly for the daring Uhuru jumper. At this point, the average black in business has some sophistication, some money, and a good measure of residual resentment against the whites. I think South Africa will continue on its downward trajectory. Zimbabwe, I believe, has turned the corner and is going to recover, until it gets another Mugabe look-alike. Which it will. That\u2019s the way post-colonial Africa is structured. I don\u2019t see Africa as anything but a prospect for the occasional speculation.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see long-term investment as an even remotely realistic possibility. Except for perhaps the Chinese, who might recolonize the place in an even less mellow way than the Europeans.<\/p>\n

THE ORIENT<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is where the future lies. I\u2019m a long-time fan of the Orient, including as a place to live. True, the whole area was colonized by the Europeans (with the prominent exceptions of Thailand and Japan), but the culture of the region is so old and deep, and the population so large, that it\u2019s retained its character.<\/p>\n

But how is it for expatriation? My second most favorite country on the planet is Thailand, for many reasons I won\u2019t even attempt to touch on here. Singapore has replaced Hong Kong as the hub for entrepreneurs and rich expats in the region. The Philippines, the perennial poor man who should have become rich, is worth a serious look; the 400 years of Spanish influence, with an American overlay, gives it a nice ambiance, from my viewpoint. Burma is the country I\u2019d most likely spend serious time in if I really wanted to make a huge amount of money \u2013 given a long-term view.<\/p>\n

A key thing to remember in the Orient is that, although it\u2019s a fantastic place to live, if you\u2019re not a native, you\u2019ll never really become part of the local culture. This is a double-edged sword, though. It can be a huge advantage to always be viewed as a tourist, a foreign ghost. It can allow significant freedoms and leeway.<\/p>\n

The big question is China. My view is that although the 21st will be China\u2019s century, they\u2019re in for some very serious problems. The business cycle runs there, too. And it\u2019s been immensely aggravated by the giant influx of U.S. dollars and the building of a manufacturing infrastructure catering to overextended Americans. I\u2019ll be really surprised if the property market doesn\u2019t collapse almost as badly as that in, in these pages.<\/p>\n

NORTH AMERICA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada presents an excellent, and nearby, an opportunity for Americans. It\u2019s America light. It has less in the way of financial problems than the U.S. and, with numerous new taxes on the way in the U.S., it will be a lower-tax jurisdiction, as well. But since Canadians (like almost everybody in the world except Americans) aren\u2019t subject to tax if they don\u2019t live in Canada, it\u2019s a mystery to me why anyone with capital doesn\u2019t expatriate. The answer, of course, is that serf mentality, keeping you close to what you know. Canadians suffer from it to a greater degree than Americans; it\u2019s a generally a more socially conservative country. It\u2019s a good time to leave Canada, though, since its property is quite overpriced by almost any standard \u2013 especially in Vancouver, BC.<\/p>\n

But I\u2019m fond of Canada, as are Asians. They are, for instance, now more than 50% of the British Columbia population.<\/p>\n

The U.S., even though it\u2019s perhaps the major epicenter of the Greater Depression, still may be the best place for an immigrant to come to make his fortune. This will change, of course, as the general standard of living in the U.S. drops. As recently as a generation ago, the U.S. would have gotten the nod as the best country for someone to make the most of his personal freedom and financial opportunity; but that\u2019s definitely no longer the case.<\/p>\n

OCEANIA<\/strong><\/p>\n

You\u2019ve got to like Australia and New Zealand. Consider them being like Canada, but with good weather. My choice is New Zealand, perhaps the most benign place on the globe, where nothing will hurt you except perhaps a visiting Australian stock promoter.<\/p>\n

The problem is that it\u2019s quiet and insular, with as many cattle and 20 times as many sheep as people. But it has some good universities, and I consider Christchurch one of the world\u2019s nicest cities (although I\u2019m in Auckland a couple months of the year, for reasons of convenience and polo). When people ask me what I\u2019m doing in New Zealand, I usually answer, \u201cI came for the kangaroos.\u201d<\/p>\n

Australia is (surprisingly) perhaps the most urbanized country in the world, Crocodile Dundee myths notwithstanding. Maybe that\u2019s because in the outback everything will kill you, from the heat to the snakes. Sydney and Melbourne are great cities. This country is uniquely blessed in a lot of ways.<\/p>\n

Nothing wrong with it but the government, which seems consistently dominated by people with a peculiarly British lower-middle-class view of the world. Property is in a debt-driven bubble here that will be ugly when it bursts \u2013 the country has always imitated, but been a bit behind, the US.<\/p>\n

LATIN AMERICA<\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019d forget the Caribbean countries. Too insular (obviously), unsophisticated, viciously expensive, and racially charged.<\/p>\n

Mexico is heading for trouble, in that almost half the government\u2019s revenue comes from the Cantarell oilfield, which is well into terminal decline. That means that not only will the government be madly scrambling for cash, but the place will shortly go from a major oil exporter (mainly to the US) to a major importer. The drug wars along the border were long overdue and aren\u2019t going away unless drugs are legalized in the US \u2013 which isn\u2019t likely to happen for any number of reasons, not least of which is the entrenched bureaucracy in the DEA would never permit it.<\/p>\n

In Central America, Nicaragua is cheap. Costa Rica is overbuilt, discovered, and expensive. Guatemala is sophisticated, but I suspect the long guerrilla war \u2013 which in some ways was a war between the rich European immigrants and the poor Indian natives \u2013 could be a simmering problem. Forget overpopulated El Salvador.<\/p>\n

Most interesting in Central America, by far, is Panama; I think you should put it on your list. And Belize, which is demographically more part of the Caribbean.<\/p>\n

Forget Venezuela. It\u2019s not just Maduro, it\u2019s that the oil has completely corrupted the society for a long time to come. Colombia is getting much better, especially around Cartagena, which is almost a different country. Ecuador, like Bolivia and Peru, suffers from a divide between the Indians and the immigrants. The eastern part of Bolivia could be nice if the country breaks in two, which is not unlikely.<\/p>\n

They say that Brazil has always been the Country of Tomorrow \u2013 and always will be. That may be changing. Even the real, their latest currency (they\u2019ve destroyed more currencies than Argentina) has been quite strong. This may be giving them delusions of grandeur \u2013 or not. But the place is now too expensive to get my attention.<\/p>\n

Chile is the Latin country where everything works; the average Chilean has a higher net worth now than the average American. And Santiago is one of the safest large cities in the world.<\/p>\n

Uruguay is basically a quiet, sleepy province of Argentina, but with serious fiscal advantages; it has an excellent future.<\/p>\n

Which brings us to Argentina, my personal favorite<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a rich country down on its luck because of decades of destructive government mismanagement. I like it because of Buenos Aires\u2019 class and style. Its low population and wide-open spaces. Its low costs. At this point it\u2019s more European than Europe, but without most of that continent\u2019s risks and aggravations.<\/p>\n

And if the government simply stops being actively stupid, the place should regain its previous place as one of the world\u2019s richest countries. If it does, it will present a great speculative opportunity, which is the way I see it. If it doesn\u2019t, it will remain a great place to be. In the meantime, it\u2019s pretty much out of harm\u2019s way, relative to most of the world\u2019s serious problems.<\/p>\n

So that\u2019s where I\u2019m placing a few bets personally since you can\u2019t be everywhere at the same time.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t, incidentally, view expatriation as a panacea of any type. Notwithstanding the fact you don\u2019t ever want to get caught in a place like Germany in the \u201930s, or Rwanda in the \u201980s, most people\u2019s problems begin in their own heads. A counselor often provides a better solution than a travel agent.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, I think the time is growing short, as the economy emerges from the eye of the current hurricane. After which it will encounter several more even bigger ones. There you have it. But don\u2019t look at this as idle information. I suggest you allocate some time, call your travel agent, and get going.<\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong>\u00a0We first posted this in 2013 but still has some relevance today.<\/p>\n\n

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    While I am not sure about war in Europe, it is a possibility and one thing I am<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[10,12,247,241,39,248,34,33,62,42,219,11,249,243,7,246,244,44],"class_list":["post-25184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-bocas-del-toro","tag-boquete","tag-boquete-boca-chica-real-estate","tag-boquete-real-estate","tag-buenaventura","tag-casco","tag-casco-antiguo","tag-casco-viejo","tag-coffee-in-panama","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-move-to-panama","tag-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-papers","tag-panama-real-estate","tag-relocate-to-panama","tag-rum-in-panama","tag-travel-to-panama"],"yoast_head":"\nDoug Casey view of the World \u2013 Picks War in Europe and bets on Argentina - Blog and 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