{"id":24829,"date":"2018-12-10T11:05:45","date_gmt":"2018-12-10T16:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=24829"},"modified":"2018-12-11T09:53:38","modified_gmt":"2018-12-11T14:53:38","slug":"latin-american-markets-look-promising-2019-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/latin-american-markets-look-promising-2019-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"Latin American Markets Look Promising In 2019 And Beyond"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Here is a great article I read in Forbes.\u00a0 2019 is likely to be a year of volatility in Latin America, but markets look promising for long-term investors. Given banks\u2019 and other financial institutions\u2019 significant exposure to Latin America, analysts and investors will have to be very attentive to external and domestic factors that will influence the performance of Latin American bonds, equities and foreign exchange markets. \u00a0External factors such as increasing interest rates in the U.S., the roller coaster of China-U.S. trade tensions, and a slowdown in developed markets will likely weigh negatively on Latin American countries.\u00a0 Domestically, political and policy uncertainty will also be key themes, particularly in\u00a0Brazil\u00a0and Mexico, both which had elections in the last few months. Investors should be watching closely what fiscal reforms and infrastructure developments both countries pursue. There is also significant political and policy uncertainty with Argentina, since there is an election there next year which will likely be taking place in a recessionary environment in Argentina.<\/p>\n

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Latin American GDP Growth ForecastsS&P GLOBAL RATINGS NOVEMBER 2018<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

On the positive side, however, the North American Free Trade Agreement is likely to be ratified in the U.S. congress next year, which will be viewed favorably by global investors and will be a positive for the Mexican economy.\u00a0 Also, markets have reacted very favorably to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s victory as evidenced by the\u00a0Bovespa index rising<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0credit default swap premia<\/a>\u00a0on the Brazilian sovereign bond narrowing.<\/p>\n

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Rating agencies presently have Brazil\u2019s and Mexico\u2019s outlook as stable.\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s foreign and local currency debt is BB- while Mexico\u2019s foreign and local currency debt are BBB+ and A- respectively.<\/p>\n

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External Headwinds to Emerging Market Growth Are RecedingMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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While it is easy to be focused on the day-to-day noise of the markets, it is important to have a longer-term perspective. According to\u00a0Cesar Manent<\/a><\/strong>, Partner and Co-Founder of\u00a05th<\/sup>\u00a0Street Advisors<\/a>,<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cLike most emerging market regions, Latin America has two fabulous demographic attributes that developed countries can only dream of: significant population growth and a growing middle class.\u201d\u00a0 These two attributes are important, because this means that there are a lot of young families buying a wide range of products and services. If you have a five year and above investment horizon then \u201cthen today\u2019s emerging market valuation and the wide gap in performance between the SP500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America are a compelling combination.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Outlook Bias Distribution Of Latin American Issuers By Sector, October 2018S&P GLOBAL RATINGS<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Latin American equity market is dominated by Brazil and Mexico. And Manent is positive about both.\u00a0 Manent pointed to the fact that\u00a0\u201cBrazil has a new conservative president, and the markets have been very positive about him.”<\/p>\n

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Morgan Stanley Forecast for BrazilMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

He also stated that “Mexico has recently inaugurated a populist president, but one that has pledged fiscal discipline and recently signed a new trade deal with the United States and Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Morgan Stanley Forecast for MexicoMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Because of his view about demographics in Latin America, Manent stated that he thinks that \u201cthe consumer and real estate sectors would be an attractive place to be. Young families will be purchasing lot of goods and services, and they will need homes to live in, along with the other real estate related infrastructure needed to support a growing population.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Emerging Market Bull-Bear GDP ScenariosMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Latin America financial sector bonds and stocks are also promising. Most\u00a0Latin American banks<\/a>\u00a0have had conservative growth strategies and have not relied on external funding.\u00a0 According to Standard and Poor\u2019s, with the exception of Brazil and Argentina, the outlook for the other key Latin American financial systems is stable or positive.<\/p>\n

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Latin American Financial SystemsS&P GLOBAL RATINGS<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Moody\u2019s Investors Services analysts also have a favorable outlook toward banks. In their November 2018 emerging market report \u201c2019 outlook broadly stable; higher rates, politics and trade tensions pose some risks,\u201d Latin American analysts wrote that \u201cStable economic growth will help support the operating environment for banks\u00a0<\/strong>throughout Latin America, keeping problem loans at bay in most countries. Public policies in the region largely support healthy bank fundamentals, while generally high interest rates and low-cost deposit funding will fuel ample profitability and adequate capital. On average, the nonperforming loans (NPL) ratio will hover at a moderate 3% and return on assets will remain ample by global standards at around 1.5%.<\/p>\n

Manent does have a caveat for investors in 2019. They should \u201cbe prepared for volatility, lots of it.\u201d\u00a0 He recommends that an investment in Latin American \u201cshould only be a small part of a diversified portfolio.\u00a0 I would lean towards accessing the asset class via a mutual fund or ETF.\u201d He also has an additional caveat in regards to timing the market. It is \u201cvery hard if not impossible to time markets, but something to keep in mind is that diversification within equity classes really works only on the upside. When markets are being buffeted like they are presently, most if not all equity assets become highly correlated.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the challenges with Latin American markets is contagion. Manent explained that \u201cInvestors often bundle all emerging market countries into one, and that is so unfortunate and wrong. Yet, it is what it is and one must be cognizant of that.\u201d For example, the US-China trade issue will affect everyone and that includes Latin America. \u201cAnd the US interest rate environment along with the value of the dollar is another issue that could impact Latin American markets. Until these two play out, Latin America and the rest of the equity markets will be very vulnerable in the short run. However, if you are looking five or ten years ahead, Latin American assets at today\u2019s prices are worth a strong look.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

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    Here is a great article I read in Forbes.\u00a0 2019 is likely to be a year of volatility<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[10,12,247,241,39,248,34,33,62,42,219,11,249,243,7,246,244,44],"class_list":["post-24829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective","tag-bocas-del-toro","tag-boquete","tag-boquete-boca-chica-real-estate","tag-boquete-real-estate","tag-buenaventura","tag-casco","tag-casco-antiguo","tag-casco-viejo","tag-coffee-in-panama","tag-estate-homes-in-panama","tag-move-to-panama","tag-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-offshore-real-estate","tag-panama-papers","tag-panama-real-estate","tag-relocate-to-panama","tag-rum-in-panama","tag-travel-to-panama"],"yoast_head":"\nLatin American Markets Look Promising In 2019 And Beyond - Blog and 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