{"id":14593,"date":"2015-09-30T13:37:48","date_gmt":"2015-09-30T18:37:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=14593"},"modified":"2015-09-30T13:37:48","modified_gmt":"2015-09-30T18:37:48","slug":"panama-as-seen-by-standard-poors-in-september-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/panama-as-seen-by-standard-poors-in-september-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Panama as Seen by Standard & Poor’s in September 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"S&P \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/a>\"panama<\/a><\/p>\n

The agency has kept the sovereign debt rating unchanged highlighting the stability of growth and diversification of the economy, which gives the country the ability to cope with adverse external conditions.<\/p>\n

From the press release by Standard & Poor’s:<\/p>\n

Panama<\/a>‘s continued strong economic growth prospects, increasing economic diversification and resilience, and moderate net general government debt burden support our ratings.
\nThe country is vulnerable to swings in global economic conditions, has
\nunderdeveloped but growing domestic capital markets, and developing
\npolitical institutions.
\nWe are affirming our ‘BBB\/A-2’ long and short-term sovereign credit
\nratings on the Republic of Panama.
\nThe outlook on the long-term rating remains stable, reflecting our
\nforecast for a growing economy<\/a> and improving fiscal and external
\nperformance.<\/p>\n

RATING ACTION
\nOn Sept. 23, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘BBB\/A-2’
\nlong- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Panama. The
\nrating outlook<\/a> remains stable. The transfer and convertibility (T&C)
\nassessment is unchanged at ‘AAA’.<\/p>\n

RATIONALE
\nContinued strong economic growth prospects, increasing economic
\ndiversification and resilience, and a moderate general government debt burden
\nsupport our ratings on Panama. The ratings also take into account the
\nvulnerability to sharp swings in global economic conditions, an underdeveloped
\nbut growing domestic capital market, and developing political institutions.
\nPanama has no independent monetary policy because it is fully dollarized and
\ntherefore has no formal lender of last resort for the financial system.<\/p>\n

Rapid economic growth over the last five years (an average of 9%), boosted by
\nsignificant physical infrastructure investment, is likely to increase per
\ncapita GDP per capita to US$13,000 in 2015, 80% higher than in 2009. The
\ncountry’s economic growth<\/a> rate decelerated to 6.2% in 2014, from 8.3% of 2013.
\nWith the completion of several large infrastructure projects, we forecast that
\nthe economy will grow at a moderately lower rate, about 6% on average, over
\nthe next three years, with GDP per capita growth above 4% per year. The
\nprojected growth rate reflects the increased diversification of the economy,
\nadded economic activity following the expansion of the Panama Canal (now
\nalmost 94% complete), a booming tourism sector, and new investment in mining.<\/p>\n

Continued GDP growth should contribute to a stable and likely declining burden
\nof general government debt over the next three years. We expect that a
\ncombination of lower capital expenditures (after a surge of government
\ninvestment in recent years) and increased revenues from the Panama Canal’s
\nexpanded operations, coupled with a growing economy, would stabilize the gross
\ngeneral government debt burden at about 35% of GDP over the next three years.
\nIn addition, we expect that net general government debt will remain below 20%
\nof GDP. We expect that the increase in general government debt will remain
\nbelow 3% of GDP in the next three years and interest expenses will consume
\nless than 10% of revenues.<\/p>\n

Panama’s persistent trade deficit will continue to contribute to a large
\ncurrent account deficit. However, a deceleration in investment should contain
\nimport growth, resulting in a gradual decline in the current account deficit
\nover the coming three years toward 7% of GDP, from an average of 10% during
\n2012-2014. As in previous years, we expect that inflows of foreign direct
\ninvestment should continue financing most, if not all, of the current account
\ndeficit. Accordingly, we forecast Panama’s gross external financing needs are
\nlikely to hover at about 100% of current account receipts and usable reserves
\nin next three years.<\/p>\n

After its first year in office, the Administration of President Juan Carlos
\nVarela has maintained continuity in key economic policies while strengthening
\nthe country’s public institutions. Although the Administration lacks a
\nmajority in Congress, it has managed to reach agreements with other parties to
\npass legislation. Congress has also approved the president’s nominations of a
\nnew attorney general and government comptroller, two key posts designed to
\nserve as checks against public-sector corruption and mismanagement.<\/p>\n

Continued strengthening of governmental institutions, as well as more
\neffective internal controls and checks and balances among branches of
\ngovernment, would enhance transparency. Over the long term, a sustained
\nreduction in perceived corruption would favor investment and strengthen the
\ngovernment’s capacity to effectively implement its policies.<\/p>\n

As a small, open economy, Panama depends on global conditions. Although we
\nestimate that its banking sector has a net external asset position, it remains
\nexposed to an unexpected deterioration in external conditions. Panama has no
\ncentral bank or formal lender of last resort. Nor does it have a deposit
\ninsurance system or other explicit mechanisms to provide temporary liquidity
\nto distressed financial institutions, which is one of its rating
\nvulnerabilities.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Financial Action Task Force of the Organisation of Economic
\nCo-operation and Development has placed Panama on its “grey list” of countries
\nwith a weak legal framework for preventing money laundering and terrorism
\nfinancing activities. The government has taken steps, including passing a new
\nlaw against money laundering and strengthening its enforcement capacity, and
\nis seeking to be removed from the list in 2016.<\/p>\n

As a fully dollarized economy, Panama’s monetary and exchange rate policy
\nlargely rests with the U.S. In our opinion, the likelihood of the Panamanian
\ngovernment ceasing to use the U.S. dollar as its local currency is low.
\nTherefore, our T&C assessment is ‘AAA’, the same as that of the U.S.<\/p>\n

OUTLOOK
\nThe stable outlook incorporates our expectation of continuity in key economic
\npolicies and political stability. We expect that Panama’s economy will
\ncontinue to grow at about 6% over the next three years while the government
\ngradually tightens fiscal policy and stabilizes its debt burden. It also
\nreflects our expectation of continued efforts to strengthen management of
\npublic institutions and government transparency, as well as to address
\nweaknesses in the regulatory framework for financial institutions.<\/p>\n

Over the long term, we could raise the rating if continued high GDP growth
\nresults in a more resilient and prosperous economy with a declining general
\ngovernment debt burden and diminished vulnerability to external shocks.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, an unexpected shock to the financial system could damage
\nconfidence in the country. Such an event, or other developments that hurt the
\ncountry’s growth prospects, could weaken its credit profile. The resulting
\nslower medium-term growth prospects or an eroding fiscal and debt profile
\ncould result in a lower credit rating.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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