{"id":13031,"date":"2015-03-30T14:16:11","date_gmt":"2015-03-30T19:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=13031"},"modified":"2015-03-30T14:16:11","modified_gmt":"2015-03-30T19:16:11","slug":"is-this-the-end-of-the-euro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/is-this-the-end-of-the-euro\/","title":{"rendered":"Is This the End of the Euro?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/euros.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13032\" src=\"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/euros.jpg\" alt=\"euros\" width=\"500\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/euros.jpg 500w, https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/euros-300x179.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">My friend Mihaela Cazau from Nestmann.com sent me a good article on what is happening in the currency market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From Mark Nestmann, Nestmann.com<br \/>\nWith the US dollar hitting multiyear highs against other global currencies almost daily, Americans are in a sweet spot for making international investments. Your US dollars will buy a lot more rubles, yen, and Canadian dollars than they would a year, or even a month, ago.<br \/>\nBut it\u2019s the dollar\u2019s rise against the euro, the official currency for 19 EU countries, that has the world\u2019s attention. On March 13, the euro hit an intraday low of 1.046, its lowest level against the dollar in 12 years. It\u2019s bounced back a bit since, but indeed, the euro has fallen nearly 25% against the greenback since July 2014.<br \/>\nEconomic pundits attribute the collapse in the euro\u2019s value to the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has embarked on a \u20ac1.1 trillion effort to revitalize eurozone economies that never really recovered from the global financial collapse of 2007-2008. It has announced it will buy \u20ac60 billion of eurozone government bonds monthly through September 2016.<br \/>\nThe objective of this exercise is to encourage banks to lend more money. Banks are supposed to make more loans. The idea is that banks take \u20ac60 billion and buy new assets to replace the bonds they sold to the ECB. That in turn is supposed to cause stock prices to rise and interest rates to fall, boosting investment in the eurozone.<br \/>\nWhere will the ECB get the money? It will do what central banks do best: create the money out of thin air through \u201cquantitative easing\u201d (QE). The ECB and other central banks have run out of ways to stimulate global economies. If QE doesn\u2019t work, there\u2019s no backup plan \u2013 just more QE.<br \/>\nAnd there are plenty of indications that it won\u2019t work. Even before the ECB climbed onto the QE bandwagon, interest rates in some eurozone countries were already at 500-year lows.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, the ECB itself started charging banks that hoard cash at the central bank negative interest rates last June (currently -0.2%). This policy punishes banks that have strict lending standards and encourages them to lend money.<br \/>\nThe fall of the euro spells big opportunities for Americans who have most of their savings in dollars. Without doing anything at all, your US dollars will buy a lot more euro-denominated assets than they could only a few months ago. For instance, that apartment in Vienna I\u2019ve been eyeing for years is now 25% less expensive in dollar terms than it was only a few months ago.<br \/>\nBut along with these opportunities come risks. And not just the obvious ones.<br \/>\nThe obvious risk, of course, is that the euro could fall further. While negative interest rates may give banks an incentive to lend money, and consumers and businesses an incentive to borrow, it makes the currency less attractive to investors. For that reason, I think the fall in the euro could go further. Indeed, the euro\u2019s all-time low against the US dollar is just above 82 cents, a level it reached in 2000. That\u2019s nearly 25% below its current levels.<br \/>\nA less-obvious risk is if the country you decide to invest in decides to leave the euro. What if I wanted to buy an apartment in Athens, for instance, rather than Vienna?<br \/>\nAt first glance, buying property in Athens sounds like a no-brainer. Prices for the average residential property are down more than 40% in euro terms since 2008. Combined with the fall in the value of the euro, that means investors with greenbacks to burn can buy property in Athens at a 50% savings from what they could only a few years ago.<br \/>\nBut if Greece were to abandon the euro, the government would need to resurrect the drachma \u2013 the currency Greece used prior to joining the euro \u2013 overnight. It\u2019s unlikely anyone would be excited at the prospect of buying drachma-denominated bonds, so the Greek government would have to offer sky-high interest rates to pay civil servants, finance social benefits, and defend its borders. Some economists think that the value of the \u201cnew\u201d drachma could fall 40% or more in a matter of days.<br \/>\nThe prospect of a \u201cGrexit\u201d (Greek euro exit) is real, as I explained in this essay. And not only Greece \u2013 Spain, Italy, and Portugal all have fiscal problems only marginally less severe than those of Greece. All of these countries would face the same dilemma as Greece if they were forced to revert to pre-euro pesetas, lira, or escudos.<br \/>\nThat\u2019s why I\u2019m not in a hurry to buy any assets in these countries. I think that despite the fall of the euro against the dollar, assets in the countries on the southern periphery of the eurozone could get a lot cheaper in the years \u2013 and possibly months \u2013 ahead.<br \/>\nThere\u2019s an even less-obvious risk as well. What happens if not just sick economies like Greece pull out \u2013 or are forced out \u2013 of the euro, but relatively healthy ones like Germany do so as well? After all, German taxpayers are tired of footing the bill to pay (among other outrages) for Greek civil servants to retire at an average age of 53. What would happen if Germany abandons the euro and reverts back to the Deutsche mark?<br \/>\nIn that event, the exact opposite effect would probably occur: The value of the Deutsche mark would soar as investors flock to it seeking a safe currency haven. That\u2019s why if I invest anything more in the eurozone than I already have, I\u2019ll be looking to put it into stronger economies like Germany and Austria.<br \/>\nIf the euro does collapse, and the countries now comprising the eurozone resurrect their own currencies, EU policymakers will view it as a colossal defeat for their dreams of a centrally planned currency. Indeed, the loss of confidence could be so shattering that it encourages Europe\u2019s power elites to do something that is now unthinkable: revert not just to pre-euro currencies, but to gold.<br \/>\nFrom the time of ancient Egypt until the early 20th century, gold was the backbone of the global economy and the ultimate store of value. It\u2019s not a particularly attractive asset from a central planner\u2019s perspective, which is why it\u2019s gotten short shrift during the last century. After all, you can\u2019t devalue it, and you can\u2019t create it out of thin air. But once the ECB\u2019s QE program meets its demise along with the euro, gold could well be the only real option left.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My friend Mihaela Cazau from Nestmann.com sent me a good article on what is happening in the currency<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-articles-panama-perpsective"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is This the End of the Euro? - Blog and Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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