{"id":1280,"date":"2010-08-07T17:12:30","date_gmt":"2010-08-07T22:12:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/?p=1280"},"modified":"2010-08-09T10:36:20","modified_gmt":"2010-08-09T15:36:20","slug":"real-estate-boom-and-bust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.com\/blog\/real-estate-boom-and-bust\/","title":{"rendered":"Real Estate – Boom and Bust"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Before we look at some news from Panama ( and it is all good stuff) I found last week\u2019s international real estate news focusing on China.\u00a0 While it might not have a direct impact on Panama or the US, it may have an indirect economic \u00a0impact as there is a huge overhang of product in China right now and even the Chinese Government is very concerned about the effects of a collapsing real estate market on the banking system over there.\u00a0\u00a0 Think Greece times 1,000,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"\"<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

First came the headline from Bloomberg this week\u00a0\u2022<\/strong>China Said to Test Banks for 60% Home-Price Drop<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Highlights <\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

China\u2019s stress tests of\u00a0banks\u00a0will assess the risk that a possible slump in property prices may strain developers\u2019 finances and cause homebuyers to default, a person with knowledge of the matter said.\u00a0 The banking regulator told lenders to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent<\/strong> in cities where they have risen excessively, the person said, declining to be identified because the regulator\u2019s requirement hasn\u2019t been publicly announced. Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.\u00a0\u00a0 China\u2019s property market is beginning a \u201ccollapse\u201d that will hit the nation\u2019s banking system,\u00a0Kenneth Rogoff<\/a>, a Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said July 6.\u00a0 Average prices may fall as much as 20 percent over the next 12 to 18 months, with declines of up to 40 percent in \u201cbig bubble\u201d cities, Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a July 2 report.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Editor:<\/strong> I can remember back in 2005 and 2006 when I was in the hottest sector of commercial real estate back in Florida trading Net Leased Retail deals and the CAP rates were approaching 6 percent and CMBS loans were 5.5% fixed for ten years and interest only!\u00a0 We all looked at each other and agreed something is broken and we will all pay for this madness one day.\u00a0 Of course we would all turn to the residential builders and laugh about how big the overhang was in the condo market and their day of reckoning was also coming, sooner than ours.\u00a0\u00a0At the point where the inventory was projected to\u00a0reach around 40,000 units\u00a0the word Bubble was on a lot of peoples lips and just then\u00a0four of the largest condo developers\u00a0came out in an article stating that there was no\u00a0Bubble and it was all false as the market was strong and would continue unabated.\u00a0\u00a0 Then we ended up with the consequences that I predicted, affordable housing for Miami will finally be a reality!\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ok, flash forward\u00a0back to China and the second headline form BLOOMBERG this week\u00a0\u00a0Beijing Billionaire Who Grew Up With Mao Sees No Housing Bubble\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0I love it when I hear this\u00a0– \u201cI don\u2019t see any bubbles,\u201d says Zhang, dressed in a white V-neck zippered top, black slacks and red heels. \u201cThe next few months will be a fantastic time to buy.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

And now for the third enlightening news I received on China, this time in an email that I received\u00a0from a friend over there offering me an opportunity to work with him and brokerage an opportunity.\u00a0a 480,000f2 building size, 1200 rooms for a service apartment in Guanzhou, Guangdong ,China.
\nThis can be yours for only USD55,000,000\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

OK, I promise to stop beating this to death but before we go you have got to see this video on a City China built where nobody lives.\u00a0\u00a0 This is how China keeps it’s GDP numbers up!\u00a0<\/p>\n

Empty city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia is China’s modern ‘ghost town’<\/h2>\n

The growth of Ordos is positively absurd; its density remains 17.8 people per square kilometer. By comparison, New York City has 157.91 habitants per square kilometer.\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\nIt took five years to build this ghost town with funds created by a $ 585 billion stimulus package meant to bolster China\u2019s economy despite its painful recession. The Inner Mongolian city was meant to accommodate some one million residents and yet it remains empty.\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\nFilled with office towers, administrative centers, government buildings, museums, theaters, sports fields and acres of subdivisions bursting with residential space, there remains only one small problem. No one lives there!\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/embed><\/object>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now on to Panama and what’s hot but first a few highlights on Trump’s project and why, despite the over building in our own country, \u00a0it has been a success here \u00a0in Panama.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

The $400 million real estate project \u201cTrump Ocean Club\u201d, is slated to be ready by early 2011 and sales top the 80% mark.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

As reported last week,\u00a0 Am\u00e9ricaEconom\u00eda.com met at\u00a0the offices\u00a0of the \u00a0Panamanian developer Roger Khafif, president of K-Group and partner in the Trump Tower, where the delivery of\u00a0units\u00a0is planned for January or February next year after topping out in May and work on the interior finishes are completed.\u00a0 This is one of\u00a0the largest real estate projects\u00a0 in Latin America with a total of 2.8 million square feet and 70 stories.\u00a0 Looks like something from Dubai (I promise not to got there).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The K-Group, the\u00a0real estate developer who heads the project was joined\u00a0 HBA \/ Hirsch Bedner Associates, which designed the 369 guest rooms and common areas of the hotel area of Trump Ocean Club.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

The factors that lured Donald Trump to raise its mega building in Panama.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

The sea and the City, a distance of just over 70 miles between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific, as well as\u00a0government and economic stability, were some of the reasons that influenced\u00a0 tycoon Donald Trump to decide to invest in Panama\u00a0 for the construction of a giant sail-shaped tower,\u00a0Trump Ocean Club<\/strong><\/a>, in the elegant area of Punta Pacifica in Panama City.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Panama has shown this year\u00a0as one of\u00a0improving conditions for attracting investment, through developments such as the recognition by the rating agency Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s of an investment grade “BBB.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The eyes of international experts\u00a0have recognized the phenomenon of the Panamanian economy, with one of the fastest growing in recent years in Latin America, through a growth rate of over 11 % in 2007 and 10.7% in 2008, but especially from 2.4% in 2009, the year of the Great Depression.\u00a0 @010 is forecast to grow at a respectable 4 ot 5% and sustain the highest growth rate in Latin America for the period 2010 to 2014.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Back to Basics<\/h2>\n

<\/a>\u00a0 \"\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \"\u00a0<\/p>\n

One of the biggest real estate sectors that continues to grow here in Panama as well as other regions of Latin America is that of affordable housing<\/strong> both from a subsidized category of $50,000 to $80,000\u00a0to the middle class sububan market that is in the $150,000 to $190,000 market\u00a0<\/p>\n

As reported by La\u00a0 Prensa this week\u00a0 ( a machine translation )
\n<\/strong>From where\u00a0the road ends from the Centennial Bridge and Highway begins from Arraij\u00e1n-La Chorrera, are the roofs of new projects that have arisen in the area.<\/p>\n

Throughout, both the Inter-American highway and the highway Arraij\u00e1n-La Chorrera, heavy equipment, the movement of workers and large billboards are a sign that the area is attracting new residential as well commercial real estate projects. But what has caused this awakening\u00a0to take place?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Developers agree\u00a0that the highway expansion\u00a0into four-lane road linking the districts of Arraij\u00e1n and La Chorrera, all the way to the Centennial Bridge has had a great impact.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0This and \u00a0the development of the Panama-Pacific project in Howard and not having to pay tolls on the highway are determining factors in its decision to build new residential projects.<\/p>\n

In addition, the\u00a0opportunity to acquire land ranging in price from one dollar and $ 20 per square meter, while in Panama City these range between $ 800 and $ 5,000 per square meter.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Royal Investment Consulting \u00a0built\u00a0 Maria Bonita residential complex of 400 houses, including social area, swimming pools, jacuzzi, basketball court, chapel, nursery and clinic in a field of 221 thousand square meters. “The houses are from 130 to 165 square meters of construction and ranging in price from $ 90,000 and $ 195,000,” says Paolo Quarta, chairman of the developer. A few meters from Maria Bonita and entering the highway Arraij\u00e1n-La Chorrera, the Oak Group continues to build its project, \u00a0Groves.\u00a0 It is a form of urbanization developed in gated communities with a perimeter wall, with\u00a0\u00a0social area and bicycle lanes.\u00a0 They are currently finishing the first of nine communities of cluster homes in stages.\u00a0The first stage consists of 480 houses that are one or two levels.\u00a0 At the end of the year\u00a0they expect to begin the presale of the second phase of the project, including residences of $59 000\u00a0 to $ 80,000.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Something for everyone<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the other side of the highway construction is also dynamic.\u00a0 There, in Long Street in La Chorrera,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0another company closed sales on 680 homes ranging from $ 57,000 to $ 175,000 in the project Mystic City.\u00a0\u00a0 Amenities include basketball court and football fields, barbecue areas, meeting room and playground for children.\u00a0 These added values are those that are influencing consumers when deciding for a particular project.\u00a0\u00a0 Walter Cardenas, general manager of Universal Property Group is well aware of this and\u00a0 is developing a project in La Chorrera as well as starting the movement of land\u00a0for another project\u00a0 in Arraij\u00e1n.\u00a0\u00a0 Bothe will have social areas with pool, gazebo and sports fields. \u00a0“That’s what you’re\u00a0now building for\u00a0the buyer,”\u00a0 he points out.\u00a0\u00a0 The other is the project Arraij\u00e1n Country Club, consisted of 108 houses ranging in price from $79 000 $ 90,0000 and $ 120,000.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0 \"\"\u00a0 \"\"<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Power Mall area<\/strong><\/p>\n

All these projects\u00a0are reasons for\u00a0 Grupo Los Pueblos, the developers of the Allbrook Mall to develop\u00a0\u00a0Land West Mall, an investment valued at $ 80 million.\u00a0 Promoters agree that the development of this shopping center will push more investment in place, as residents no longer have to travel to the city to shop and have access to everything in one place.<\/p>\n

“This makes it much more attractive for the purchase of land in these areas, because people no longer have to move on the weekend to the City,” said Walter Cardenas.\u00a0 The progress of the mall has made sales rebound in his residnetial projects\u00a0in recent months and he\u00a0acknowledges that not many predicted\u00a0his success in this type of project Arraij\u00e1n exceeding $ 100,000.<\/p>\n

Well that’s a rap for this week as I must pack my bags to head to Panama City for a week, but before I leave, a friend of mine in Richmond, who\u00a0was another\u00a0big player in Net Leased Retail, called out of the blue and said “I have a guy for a 5 star luxury hotel in Panama City, so send me some sites”.\u00a0\u00a0 What a great call from a real player in the US, one by the way that thought that I was crazy for moving here while the market was still hot in the US back in 2007.\u00a0 Well Joe, here is a nice site that may not be a 5 star luxury hotel site but will make money for someone who focuses on a business hotel model and keeps the rates within reason.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And the price is right for $1,900,000.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

All the concept plans are done, the entitlements completed and it is ready for building plans and permits.\u00a0 It is located in \u00a0Bella Vista, \u00a0just a few blocks up the street from the Miramar Intercontinental Hotel.\u00a0\u00a0 Plans are available upon request.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0Click on the picture for details\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Come on down Joe, bring your guys to Panama and thanks for\u00a0calling me.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Very truly yours,\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tom Brymer\u00a0<\/p>\n

tbrymer@brymerpa.com<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

305-448-1003\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Panama dial 507-6810-1074\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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